Israelis want disengagement / consolidation?

Latest poll done by Haaretz-dialoge shows that the absolute majority is against the consolidation plan. Namely, 56% are against and only 37% are in favor. Yes, statistics are lies, and dynamics change. But it is a known fact that in Israel poll results are biased in direction of the left and lately of Kadima and disengagement. Mr. Shimon Peres is a good example of this effect: he always wins all the polls and always looses all the elections. So I would say that the conclusion that can be made from this poll is that as of today at least 56% and at most 37% are against and in favor respectively. This, my dear readers, is called "a crushing defeat".

Theory of modular politics

Software world and politics have many parallels, but one in particular is of great educational capacity. In software there is a concept of platform, and of a plug-in. For example, any operating system, like Windows or Linux, is a platform. So is Internet. Other programs can be considered platforms in a more narrow sense - for example Photoshop is image manipulation platform. Biology, surprisingly, also works the same way. In every tissue there are so called HK (house keeping) genes, and TS (tissue specific) genes. HKs are a platform, and TS are modules specific for every tissue (or several). What makes Photoshop or HK genes a platform are two things:

1. Breadth of coverage: they provide all the necessary basics for performing set of "house keeping" tasks. For example, operating system talks to hardware, manages memory, communication over network, security, e.t.c.

2. Depth extensibility: they allow easy plugging of additional components that are designed to help perform very specific tasks. In operating systems world this means applications, in photoshop - special effects plug-ins.

This second part, and it's design, are very important. Every user wants something different from the system, and those interests overlap in some parts, and don't overlap in others. If one was to take the union (in Venn diagram sense) of those interests and try to integrate them all into a platform it would quickly become apparent that the system is capable of much more then any single user needs. This comes at a price: the system becomes much more difficult to manage and use. Another reason this is important is that no single group can hope to unite everyone to work on the same project - the platform, because people's priorities and agendas are too different, and so we naturally tend to modularize our efforts.

This is how all this relates to politics. A ruling party can be looked upon as a platform. It provides the breadth coverage of all basic ideas of how to manage a state. In dictatorial regimes the ruling party is also integrated with all it's modules. In a democracy there is a possibility of appearance of modularization: smaller parties that defend specific agendas but only marginally step on each other's turf. Those parties form the ecosystem of the platform: the ruling party. If two small parties try to address similar problems in dramatically different ways they are usually flocking to different platforms. This ecosystem is absolutely essential and without it the platform becomes irrelevant. Party that alienates it's ecosystem by attempting to build modular functionality into it's own core is going to loose on two fronts: it will become harder to manage, will be teared by internal conflicts, and will confuse voters as to what the agenda is, loosing those who do not support the new agenda in it's entirety. But most importantly the alienated ecosystem will go to a different platform, or unite around brand new one, taking all the alienated voters with them. In essence, attempt to integrate ecosystem makes the platform less, not more attractive for voters.

This is a crucial point, contradicting the idea that ruling party needs to be as big as possible and have a say on every issue. The opposite is true: the best platform is party that represents the smallest common denominator of a given cluster of ideas.

Lets take a look at a recent example in Israeli politics. In previous elections Shinui positioned themselves as a cross-platform modular party. The reason for the rise of Shinui was specificity and unambiguousness of their agenda. One of the reasons for their subsequent downfall was their ambition to become a platform party while still carrying most of the properties of a module. The voters were confused and left.

There are two platforms in Israel: Avoda and Likud. Each has an ecosystem of parties that support them. Compared to Likud, Avoda has a small ecosystem because they keep cannibalizing it, integrating every successful party that appears on horizon into Avoda itself. Meretz, the lone holdout, is the only hope for Avoda to ever come to power. If they ever integrate Meretz into Avoda it will be the end of both parties. In fact, the perceived weakness of the right wing camp, multiplicity of parties, is also their biggest advantage - unrecognized and unleveraged.

Kadima, the new platform in town, suffers from near absolute absence of ecosystem. Their only true ally is Gil party, but Gil is a fashion party, and like any fashion will soon go away (that said, the reason for their rise is, again, narrow agenda). After beating every other party in the elections they got a chance to create their own ecosystem by stealing it from Avoda and Likud. But greed for power closed their minds to reason, and instead they did the unthinkable: they accepted another platform into their ecosystem. This is the equivalent of running Linux inside Windows, or, if you will, using house keeping genes for tissue specific tasks. Those misused genes will keep trying to step on the turf of house keeping, until eventually something will break because 2nd task is unmanaged and first uncoordinated. In other words, Avoda will try to act as the ruling party, eventually bringing the coalition down, and all the mismanaged ministries into stupor. It is, well, in their genes. The future of Kadima is bleak. They will not be able to form loyal ecosystem because there is nothing to form it around.

The optimal political system is one of competing platforms, each pestering their own ecosystem of satellite parties. The most important point here is that a platform party and module party have very different purpose and architecture. One can't just grow or shrink one into another. Winning platform will be the one with the best ecosystem. That means making a right decision about what not to include in the platform. It also means creating interfaces for coordination with modular parties: a plug-and-play architecture. Public statements like "we are delegating task X to a satellite party that is designed specifically for X and proves it has the public support in the elections" can go a long way. In fact, this opens the door for true technocratic governments where every party specializes in specific areas, and fights for specific ministries. For example, party with military expertise can fight for ministry of defense, and one filled with businessmen for the ministry of trade. In addition to cases mentioned above there are many examples how public claims for specific office bring a lot of popular vote: it happened with IBA when they claimed ministry of internal affairs (the famous "MVD pod nash control"), and recently with Lieberman who proclaimed he fights for ministry of internal security. Finally, such plug-and-play architecture (and it's fair and consistent use) can create a lot of confidence in a satellite parties that the platform is not going to monopolize them away, and hence grow the ecosystem to be very large, diverse, and competitive. This will in turn up the quality of the parties and give voters more flexible choice. Such a platform will inevitably carry the elections, essentially turning them into battle of ecosystems instead of battle of fat men with 5 funny arms.

Trends in Israeli news sources

There is a new service from google, called "Trends". It allows you to compare frequencies of searches for different things on the internet. So, I thought it would be an interesting idea to compare israeli online news media. Lets take a look:



Legend: Blue: haaretz, red: maariv, orange: a7 (I didn't pick it, I promise!), green: jerusalem post, violet: ynet.

Notice how the a7, the right wing portal of the seventh channel radio in israel, beats or on par with any other news source except the very popular ynet. However, if we take a look at region distribution we see that in israel itself a7 is merely a blip on a radar - not unread, but not a significant presence either. Conclusion: it's popularity comes from the overseas. Indeed, in several countries, like (surprise) France, Germany, Italy e.t.c it is much more popular then any other news source. In germany in particular it's popularity is overwhelming. One would think that since a7 has a russian version of their portal, and germany is filled with russian jews, that has to be the reason. However, google claims that the queries were made in german and dutch. How is a7 in german? Hm... can this be attributed to ambiguity of a7 query? I wouldn't rush to this conclusion, since google is very good at guessing what you mean (trust me, I know the algorithm, and saw the stats). The mystery however, remains.

Popularity contest: round 1

On Facebook.com, website were all the students hang out, there are some interesting statistics on student's preferences. Here is one of them: nationwide preference in books among students:

1. The Da Vinci Code
2. Harry Potter
3. The Bible
4. Catcher in the Rye
5. Angels and Demons
6. To Kill a Mockingbird
7. The Great Gatsby
8. 1984
9. Lord of the Rings
10. Pride and Prejudice

Hm... Da Vinci Code and Harry Potter giving the Bible a run for it's money. Interesting days we live in.

Overall not such a bad choice of books. Of course, only students that actually read books pitched in on this survey.

It's the intentions, stupid

The new Israeli government has signed in. How does it look?

First, we have 25 ministers, and no deputy ministers. With 66 coalition members (yes, *that* number) there are 2 ministers per every 5 people. Olmert says the government is not too big because there are no deputy ministers, but it doesn't takes much to remember that before Barak changed the law it stated that there can be no more then *18* ministers. That is in a country with 7 million people. US government is quite content with 14 ministers serving 300 million people, thank you very much. Expenses aside, it does not even matter what is the size of the government as long as there is solid logic behind every ministry. Is there? Lets see...

1) Ehud Olmert - Minister of Social Welfare
Yes, he is that too, in addition to being prime minister. Just in case anyone forgets who is the champion of the poor. Be careful Mr. Olmert. Instead, people might blame you for a thing or two. Like prices going up on bread, for example.

2) Shimon Peres - Minister for the Development of the Negev and Galillee
Mr. Peres needed a ministry, doesn't matter what it is. So, let there be ministry of development of negev and galillee. Why not? Maybe next American president Mrs. Clinton can make the first man of the state, Mr. Bill Clinton, secretary of development of Alaska.

3) Yitzhak Cohen - Minister (responsible for the religious councils)
I hope Mr. Cohen is a responsible man. If he proves himself, maybe next time we can merge his ministry with the one responsible for chess clubs.

4) Rafi Eitan - Minister (responsible for pensioners)
When an entire age group gets it's own minister, something *must* be wrong with the country. What about minister responsible for students? Minister responsible for married couples with only daughters? Minister responsible for housewives? Unfortunately, the only ministry for which Mr. Eitan *is* qualified for is ministry of millionaires.

5) Ya'akov Edery - Minister, responsible for liaison with the Knesset
In a Knesset where every 2.6-th member of coalition is a minister, and every minister is a member of Knesset, this must be a very important role. Can I say "minister responsible for ministers" ?

6) Meshulam Nahari - Minister without Portfolio
apparently, this is the "non responsible minister". He has no responsibilities. None whatsoever. He just is. Like the weather.

7) Eitan Cabel - Minister (responsible for the Israel Broadcasting Authority)
This is actually a very important ministry, just the name is wrong. They used to call it much more intuitively: "Minister of Propaganda". But we will know that things got really bad when the name changes to "Israel Broadcasting, Multicasting, Unicasting, and Receiving Authority". (broadcasting = 1 to all, multicasting = 1 to many, unicasting = 1 to 1).

Until the next time,
Minister of Offence

Emergency product placement

CNN: "trapped miners got food, water, and iPods".

Can somebody tell me why they need food and water? Couldn't authorities just get them couple of DELL laptops with WiFi, so they could order in?

Russian Knesset

I thought it will be interesting to how is the Russian-speaking community in Israel is represented in politics. Although this is by no means a definitive measure, taking a look at Knesset members might give us a clue. Let see. The first year and the city are the year and city of birth. The second year is the year of aliyah. There are 12 people:

_____________________________________
Kadima:

Zeev Elkin (Kharkov 1971, 1990)
Marina Solodkina (Moscow 1952, 1991)
Michael Nudelman (Kiev 1938, 1991)

_____________________________________
Likud:

Natan Sharansky (Moscow 1948, 1986)

_____________________________________
Israel Beitainu (Israel Our Home):

Avigdor Liberman (Kishinev 1958, 1978)
Robert Ilatov (Andizhan 1971, 1985)
Sofa Landver (? 1949, 1979)
Alex Miller (Moscow 1977, 1992)
Stas Misezhnikov (Moscow 1969, 1982)
Yosef Shagal (Baku 1949, 1990)
Yuri Shtern (Moscow 1949, 1981)

_____________________________________
Meretz

Zahava Gal-On (? 1956, 1960)

---

What can we learn from this list? First, that Russian-speaking Israelis are underrepresented: only 12 members, even if one counts Zahava Gal-On, who is hardly in touch with her russian self. The reason is that many Russians vote for not Russian candidates. While this is definitely a good thing, the underrepresentation would never have happened if non-Russian voters voted to the same extent for the Russian candidates. And that is not such a good thing.

Second thing to notice is that Moscow is over-represented. Why is that?

Third, is that russian street is not represented in Avoda (Labor) at all. Can it be the influence of Peretz? Or that Kadima and Israel Beiteiny sucked all the russians out of the system? Is it because they know russian street won't vote Avoda even if you bring back Sofa Landver and put her in charge?

Finally, the big and most recent alia of 90's is severely underrepresented - only 5 out of 12 members. It is interesting that 3 out of 5 are members of Kadima - beating even Israel Beiteinu. Moreover, Kadima's list was hand-picked by Olmert - which means those 3 people didn't go through the usual scrutiny of internal elections. They are riding the popularity of the party itself. One of the remaining two - Alex Miller - is representative of Israel Beiteinu's youth, and simply had to be from the alia of 90's if he were to be born outside of Israel and be young both at the same time.
What does it say about alia of 90's, to which, by the way, I also belong? Is it that the older Russian Israelis are not letting the newer Russian Israelis into politics? Is it that the new ones are not interested in politics? Is it because they are simply not popular enough? I don't know, but if you do, pray say.

Separated at birth?

Israeli left wing politician Yossi Beilin


Russian comic Yevgeni Petrosian.

Now I know why every time I hear Beilin speak I feel like laughing, and every time I see Petrosian I loose my sense of humor.

True to their principles?

Hamas is ready to negotiate with terrorists

"if you are willing to accept the principle of a long-term truce, we are prepared to negotiate the terms. Hamas is extending a hand of peace to those who are really interested in peace based on justice."

even after Hezbollah has set the record straight...

"Instead of labeling us terrorist groups..the US should label (US president) George Bush and his aides as terrorists"

Can Hezbollah say 'hypocrites' to Hamas?

Weeee!

This is just so funny...



By the way, Firefox is here.

Quote of the day: Neturei Karta

From an interview of neturie karta rabbi with an iranian newspaper:

"Dr. Majid Goudarzi: Would you like to be eliminated the Israelian government or not?

Rabbi Cohen: Would I not... pardon?

Dr. Majid Goudarzi: Would you like to be eliminated?"

What I think Dr. Goudarzi meant to say was "Would you like the Israelian (sic) government to be eliminated or not?" but his poor english prevented him from delivering his meaning to the rabbi (probably because this is the more natural sentence structure in farci). What heppened next would make Freud proud.

The Art of Naming

I am wondering, why "Computer Science" ? It makes sense to be a "software engineer" (you engineer = write software) or "computer engineer" (you engineer = design computer hardware), but what does computer science mean? Science that explores computers? But computers are artificial creations, you don't explore them, you design, build, program, and use them. After all, nobody calls biology "microscope science", astronomy "telescope science", or physics "particle accelerator science". It's just silly. Not to mention that computers are no longer the only devices around that perform computation. I think the neatest thing would be simply call your science "science", but, damn, mathematicians already got away with it (mathematics is "science" in Greek) and will fight for the turf.

So, what are we, the bastard children of mathematics to do? The name is incorrect to the point of hordes of casual computer users being tricked into thinking that a "computer scientist" should know something about computers. Not so. What computer science studies is computation. As a result, we get chased around by people with broken computers, people with broken computers get upset because nothing gets fixed, and all this while people that should be doing the fixing are hiding behind some obscure "software developer in test" title.

Should "computing science" be used instead? Not really, since mathematicians are no less involved in the study of computation. The difference is that if mathematicians study the mountain, computer scientists study how to climb it, and then sometimes climb it, just to prove the point in practice (to extend the metaphor, programmers are "professional mountain climbers" who mostly climb on charted territory).

My personal favorites would be "Algorithm Science" or "Dynamic Mathematics". But then again, who is asking me?

It's getting better

Abramovich still has 18,3 billion $$$. That's not much, but it is only the clean part of the money. So, don't judge. It's not easy to be a billioner. It's not easy to be the richest Russian with a name like Abramovich either.

Forbes has published the list of 100 richest Russians. The cumulative this year is by 107 Billion $$$ more then the last. That's a juicy 75% growth from last year's 141, up to 248 Billion for anybody who is counting. The most successful #2 in the list made a wooping 8.6 Billion $$$ in just one year, increasing his fortune by more the 200%. Like #1, he is first and foremost in the oil business. The list also features 14 brand new Billioners (20 new names in total), up from last year's 30 - 46% more happy people, totaling 44.

Now, I am not the one to look in someone else's pocket. But I have to ask. What about the people in the government? Personally, I would really like to know how much is Putin worth. Because methinks, he could give this list a boost. I would also like to know how much money is really in those people's pockets. Finally, I would like to know how does one makes so much money so fast in a country that claims to have capitalistic economy and an average salary of 1200$ a year?

At least, for some people it is getting better.

Amazing World of Windows

I am not a big fan of Windows and nowadays Linux is my fancy. The last time I used Mac was about 10 years ago. So, obviously, I am pretty biased in this regard, even though I think justifiably so. Yesterday I was very amused to find an interesting discussion on the web about the benefits of Windows. It all started from a user of Mac who never used Windows before (people like that exist it turns out) being excited about a new program created by Apple called Boot Camp. Boot Camp allows to dual boot OSX and Windows on Macintosh computer (dual boot means being able to choose between working in Windows or OSX when computer starts). This guy finaly got a chance to try Windows without having to buy a new computer to do it, and wanted to know what new exciting applications will become available to him in the Windows world. The question was asked on slashdot.org, which means he was answered by a very big and very technical crowd. What did people came up with? Here is grouping of different types of answers:

1. Games
2. Antivirus e.t.c applications (this is not exciting, this is the grim reality of a Windows user)
3. Applications that came from or are available on Mac (iTunes, Photoshop ...)
4. Applications that came from Linux
5. Games

That's it. Obviously, there are crucial things that are not available on Mac that are not mentioned here. But almost all of them are professional applications, like Visual Studio. Non-professionals don't care about them. So, I guess, games then. Makes it much more clear why Microsoft is ready to loose billions (and it does) in a war with Sony's PlayStation. PlayStation is not using Windows (PlayStation 3 uses Linux) and in effect takes away the last reason for the casual user to ever touch Windows computer.

21

My 21st year in the prison is getting near, and unless a miracle happens, here is what awaits me during the week of Hag Herut:

* Hunger
* Overheating
* Slave labor
* Loneliness and depression
* Sickness
* Betrayal

Hunger:

In the prison, during Pessah, there is constant lack of food, and so my hunger is my constant companion. This year will be worse, because kosher for Pessah food that could be bought in prison's stall is stolen by other prisoners. So, now I can't imagine what will happen.

Overheating:

This is a name for all sort of sicknesses that appear as a consequence of constantly staying in overheated premises. Although nowadays the temperature in North Carolina is warn, the prison keeps heating the section in which I live. The section turned into a warm sauna, and my cell - into a pressure cooker.

Slave labor:

I won't have Seder Pessah. I won't have matza. I won't have wine. I won't be sitting, leaning my elbows. Like any other week, during the entire week of Pessah I will be cleaning windows and bathrooms. It is nothing personal. I am just a symbol of Jewish nation.

Loneliness and depression:

Completely alone. No family. No friends. No meetings. I am very worried about my beloved wife Ester, who is now in Jerusalem fighting for my freedom, despite her broken health, absence of money, and absolutely no support from the government of Israel. I miss her more then one can describe in words. My heart tears into shreds with the thought that again we will be spending this celebration of freedom as prisoners.

Sickness:

21 years of constant asperity in extremely hard prison conditions have destroyed my immune system. My blood pressure maxes out measurement devices. I have high cholesterol, chronic rheumatic arthritis, symptoms of approaching glaucoma, brutal cholecystitis attacks, chronic sinusitis, that is often accompanied by nose bleeding, head spinning, nausea, and blinding headaches. Additional stress in a form of lack of food and Pessah asperities will only make the matters worse.

Betrayal:

My service for Israel wasn't for some political party, or a specific leader. I came forward for the welfare of the people. I never asked for thanks or medals. But even in my worst nightmare I couldn't imagine that my people will care so little about fulfillment of commandment of "pidion shvuim", and that they will raise to the heights of power the same man who betrayed me 21 years ago. Instead of an outcry to bring me back home in time for Pessah, my people voted for Rafi Eitan, my ex-commander, to be a member of Knesset.

While I am rotting in prison, Eitan is celebrating his victory. That man not only did not provide me with a plan of escape, he came up with the idea to throw me out of the embassy, then falsely testified against me, and then didn't move his finger for 21 years to help me. Worse, for the past 21 years Eitan is sitting on the only copy of a document of supreme importance that could be the key in negotiations about my release. Election of Rafi Eitan is unpleasant for Americans, and I am paying for that with my life.

Don't rely on miracles

Our tradition teaches us not to rest our hopes on miracles. It says that we need to do "hishtadlut", do our best, and the God will do the rest. This message is my "hishtadlut". It is my last outcry from my very heart, from the depth of my soul (min ha amakim), from the depth of desperation (min ha meitzar), a cry from hell tearing apart the insides and shaking the ground, an outcry of heart directed to my brothers and sisters, the entire House of Israel.

For the past 21 years I am bleeding to death in front of the eyes of all the people of Israel. For the past 21 years my cries for help fall on death ears. If, God forbid, time will run out, nothing will pay for this sin of indifferently standing on the blood of a brother.

Hear Israel! Our God! One God! It is time to make teshuva. It is time to repent. It is time for the entire House of Israel to unite in the name of fulfilling one commandment: pidion shvuim, the returning of the imprisoned! Time to act! Time to pray! Time to use the influence! Time to demand!

Only with the unity of Israel we can show the creator of universe that the people of Israel will not be silent any more, will not stand indifferently on the blood of a brother. Through saving one single prisoner the entire nation of Israel can save and reborn itself.

Celebration of freedom is nearing by. The nation should not wait! With the help of God the salvation can come in a blink of an eye! Let this Pessah be the Pessah of our salvation - collective and personal - and let this Pessah bring the miracle of salvation to all Jewish prisoners. Amen!

Jonathan Pollard,
April 2006

Translated by Yury Puzis from Russian version. All errors are the responsibility of translator. This translation is not official.

This letter was recently published in Israeli newspapers. On April 10 Ester Pollard was interviewed by Israeli Channel 2 on TV. Ester said that she just received information from a high-ranking American source that President Bush is seriously considering freeing Pollard right now, in time for Seder Pessah. However, President Bush is reluctant to sign the pardon without official request from the government of Israel. No government of Israel has ever made such a request.

Ester is urging people to contact the office of Ehud Olmert and demand that such an official request be urgently made. This appeal is to you, my dear reader.

There are people in Israel that will try to jeopardize this unique opportunity. One of them is Rafi Eitan, the leader of the Pensioners party. Right now he is sitting in Olmert's office, getting ready to become a minister.

Please, mention this on your blog, and consider contacting Ehud Olmert yourself.

Price of 1 vote: Part 2

In the previous post I talked about the effect of the soldier's vote on the right-wing parties in Israel. And what about the left? Before the vote left parties were numbering 59 seats, 2 short of critical 61, a blocking number in a 120 seats Knesset. After the votes were counted Kadima and Meretz gained one seat each, turning the power into the hands of the left parties. At the same time one of Arab parties lost 1 seat, getting the Arab total down to 9. However, it turns out that one of the Arab parties claims there was an error in count, and a small number of it's votes went to Herut. The issue is still under consideration, but if it turns out to be true, Arabs will take one seat from... Avoda. This will bring the total left-wing seats to 60, costing left-wing parties the short-lived dominance.

Price of 1 vote

I think people learned from the 2000 US presidential elections and the Florida incident that every vote counts. Recent elections in Israel provided one more prove to that effect.

Before the voting of soldiers was taken into account Likud had 11 seats and Israel Our Home 12 seats. As a consequence It because 4th largest party in Knesset, and potentially the largest party in opposition. Which is actually a big deal, because the opposition leader has special privileges, and special status according to law, and is the one expected to run for prime minister in the next elections.

Parties by size before soldiers voted:

Kadima
Avoda
Shas
Israel Our Home
Likud

It was not meant to be. After soldier's votes have been accounted for, it turned out that Israel Our Home has exactly 220 votes less then Likud. As a consequence 1 of their seats went to Likud, getting their total down to 11, and getting Likud up to 12. Now Likud is the 3 largest party, as the ex-3rd largest party Shas also lost one seat and came down to 12 from 13.

Parties by size after soldiers voted:

Kadima
Avoda
Shas, Likud
Israel Our Home

That's not all however. The person who got so lucky and got the 12th seat from Likud is Israel Katz. Israel Katz belongs to group of internal opposition to Netaniahu, also featuring Silvan Shalom, Limor Livnat and Dani Nave. In Israel there is a law that a party has officially split if at least 1/3 of it's members leave it to create a new parliamentary block. Without Katz the opposition was 3/11 which is less then 1/3. With him it is 4/12 which is exactly 1/3. Which means that those 220 votes gave Shalom & co. the power to threaten Netaniahu with splitting up the party (again). Or actually do it.

Back to the future

And the second elections in Israel are over, we get a terrorist attack. Hamas is back, now that it's favorite candidate has won the Israeli elections, and it's safe to kill again. In other news, new rocket lunchers are developed in Gaza. They will reach as far as Ashdod.

Can we still ship a ship?

Microsoft can't ship a new operating system since 2001. NASA can't lunch a ship since 2003 (and can't land one for even longer). That's 3 years for anyone who is counting. What's next? US government unable to reorganize homeland security since 2001? Oh wait...

Quote of the day 2

Tom Maurstad on "V for Vendetta": "it was better the first time around, when it was called The Matrix".

Quote of the day

Kadima's official, on his party's failure to convince the russian-speaking voters to support Kadima: "A little too late we understood that the approach for Russian speakers must be rational"

Other World

Yesterday I went to Indian Festival in Fort Lauderdale, and had a chance to converse with an interesting Indian. He was dressed in traditional Indian outfit, with different symbols from the Hindu religion. For anyone not familiar with Hinduism seeing this dress could come as a shock. There were 3 most prominent symbols drawn on the surface of his outfit: the "OM" symbol, a six-edged star (Star of David in Judaism) and the Swastika. Although I knew about the origin of those symbols, it still felt very strange to see swastika neighboring star of David on Hindu dress. A reminder of how fast people twist the world around us into it's complete opposite, and how quickly we (especially the Europeans / Americans) forget our history.
Another thing that surprised me, if not in content (because I already knew about this) then in delivery was his mention of Christ. Leaving no room for doubt, as if we were speaking of a widely known and non-disputed fact he informed me that Christ spent a dozen years of his life in India (starting from age 13, point after which Bible is skipping right to his 30s), and that he died in India, returning there after crucifixion.
There was also another thing he mentioned, one that really took me by surprise. Religion, he said, was European invention. Before Europeans came to India and explained to everyone that they are religious, and are practicing this or that religion, the concept itself did not exist in that society. There was no religion, and one couldn't be religious, atheist, or agnostic. There was simply a way of life. One or another. That's it. And now that I think of it, the concept does seems very artificial. Nations that today preach religious tolerance are partly responsible for creating the need for it in the first place. How ironic is that.
Just a small chat with someone raised in a different culture, and the world stands on it's head, and truth, whatever it is, is banging on the door.

Magician I'm not telling your actual score. Hmph!

The Magician is free and full of energety. Magicians like to entertain. They like to change things. They seem driven by some invisible force. Things that never change quickly become boring to them, as they live fast-paced lives. They are very creative and able; many successful people are Magicians. Magicians, as the name implies, are often very talented and capable of performing feats that seem impossible. Although they are very artistic, they aren't usually introspective or philosophical. Magicians prefer to live in the minute. Although they really like people and even devote a portion of themselves to the world, they need their space. You can't corner a magician. He'll disappear in a puff of smoke. The Magician's complement is the kind and generous King.

My test tracked 2 variables How you compared to other people your age and gender: You scored higher than 60% on Confidence You scored higher than 81% on Creativity

Link: The Medieval Archetype Test written by isayso on OkCupid Free Online Dating, home of the 32-Type Dating Test

State of Affairs

Lets talk about today's geopolitical landscape, and trends. There are several important things happening today, that will have far-reaching consequences in the future, and it is important to understand them. This post is not so much my own conclusions, as it is a digest of several analytical articles.

Retreat on Hamas Front
First, there is the Hamas victory in Palestinian general elections. The trends that will set the course of events for the next few years are evident already. Hamas was able to bring 88 parliamentarians under their flag (more then two thirds), and immediately took away from Abbas ability to block parliament's decisions. The rule in PA is now parliamentary (belongs to Hamas), and not presidential (belongs to Fatah). All western powers dealing with Hamas - Israel, US, EU, Russia showed submission, are on retreat, and talk in split tongue. Israel gave Hamas ~45 million dollars. US government cannot give Hamas money, but cheered EU's decision to do just that. Finally, Russia invited Hamas to Kremlin. Despite popular belief, this is not going to hurt Russia. On the contrary, they are setting the stage for EU and US future talks with Hamas, quite possibly with EU and US blessing. This will result in further submissions and pressure on Israel to cave in to more demands. Hamas will try to remain "a good international citizen" while this retreat continues, getting ready to start a war the second it stops. The biggest threat to Hamas is, surprisingly, coming from Al Qaida which recently started pressuring Hamas to turn Gaza, and then West Bunk into Taliban-style state. Given Hamas's Muslim roots, it will be very hard for them to balance between being a good international citizen, and not upsetting their own supporters or provoking Al Qaida retaliation against them.

Retreat on Iraq Front
Whether or not going into Iraq was a good idea, Bush's handling of subsequent war in Iraq, that developed between Suni militia, Iranian agents and Zarkawis Al Qaida on one side, and US, British, and Iraqi regular army on another, is a failure. US army, despite winning nearly all battles it fought, is loosing the war. Despite having unlimited financial and (Iraqi) human resources, is failing to create a fight-worthy regular army of Iraq. High rate of desertions, Al Qaida infiltration, poor training are making Iraqi army a useless body of firearms bearers. The second coalition forces retreat from Iraq this army will face impossible odds and either crumble or will be completely taken over by Al Qaida. And retreat is exactly what US and British forces are starting to do. By 2007/8 Iraq will be free of western armies, and split, if not in name then in practice, into 3 entities: Kurds under US influence in north, Sunis + Al Qaida on West, Shiits under Iranian influence in South. 2 out of 3 parts of Iraq (excluding the Kurds) will become terrorist states. Oil production will soar, as different forces will start cashing in on their new-found fortune. US's credibility among the common men in the middle east, shaken after the early 90's retreat, will be shattered. Next time US will need local cooperation in the region they will face a huge problem of mistrust.

Israeli Elections
Kadima led by Olmert will win the elections. The threat to Olmert's rule will come from within. Kadima is made up of people that united around a specific man and a specific idea. The man, Ariel Sharon, is now on his death bed, and idea, unilateral disengagement, is becoming more and more controversial, now that the Hamas has won the elections in PA. Already there are two camps forming in Kadima around this issue. Which means simple thing really - the government will be heavily influenced by the second biggest party in coalition. I expect the results of nearing general elections to be strongly underwhelming for Kadima, making it even more dependent on other coalition members. In all probability Olmert will choose to go with Avoda and not Likud, since caving in to social demands of Amir Peretz will be less intrusive then caving in to political demands of Netaniahu. Given Mr. Peretz's track record, it is as good as tossing the economy out of the window, in slow motion. The government will not live long (a year or two) but long enough to cause some major strategic and economical damage. Olmert's indecisiveness and lack of clear strategy will become more and more apparent, and Kadima will disappear from political map within several years, torn apart by both inside and outside forces.


And what are your thoughts of the situation?

You Are Italian Food

Comforting yet overwhelming. People love you, but sometimes you're just too much.

What Kind of Food Are You?

Manifesto against Islamism

Taken from Irina Tsukerman

MANIFESTO: Together facing the new totalitarianism

After having overcome fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism, the world now faces a new totalitarian global threat: Islamism.

We, writers, journalists, intellectuals, call for resistance to religious totalitarianism and for the promotion of freedom, equal opportunity and secular values for all.

The recent events, which occurred after the publication of drawings of Muhammed in European newspapers, have revealed the necessity of the struggle for these universal values. This struggle will not be won by arms, but in the ideological field. It is not a clash of civilisations nor an antagonism of West and East that we are witnessing, but a global struggle that confronts democrats and theocrats.

Like all totalitarianisms, Islamism is nurtured by fears and frustrations. The hate preachers bet on these feelings in order to form battalions destined to impose a liberticidal and unegalitarian world. But we clearly and firmly state: nothing, not even despair, justifies the choice of obscurantism, totalitarianism and hatred. Islamism is a reactionary ideology which kills equality, freedom and secularism wherever it is present. Its success can only lead to a world of domination: man's domination of woman, the Islamists' domination of all the others. To counter this, we must assure universal rights to oppressed or discriminated people.

We reject cultural relativism, which consists in accepting that men and women of Muslim culture should be deprived of the right to equality, freedom and secular values in the name of respect for cultures and traditions. We refuse to renounce our critical spirit out of fear of being accused of "Islamophobia", an unfortunate concept which confuses criticism of Islam as a religion with stigmatisation of its believers.

We plead for the universality of freedom of expression, so that a critical spirit may be exercised on all continents, against all abuses and all dogmas.

We appeal to democrats and free spirits of all countries that our century should be one of Enlightenment, not of obscurantism.

12 signatures

Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Chahla Chafiq
Caroline Fourest
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Irshad Manji
Mehdi Mozaffari
Maryam Namazie
Taslima Nasreen
Salman Rushdie
Antoine Sfeir
Philippe Val
Ibn Warraq


Copy this manifesto, spread the word!

Synagogeu destroyed in Tajikistan

As it says in the headline, on Feb. 26, 2006 a synagogeu was destroyed in Tajikistan. It wasn't simply central, it was the only synagogue in the country. It wasn't an accident or even a terrorist attack. It was destroyed by order of the government. The newspapers are quiet. The world is busy with the Iraqi mosque.

Keep reading here.

Dirty mice

Meet Prof. Hasan Bolkhari, a cultural advisor to the Iranian Education Ministry:

"If you study European history, you will see who was the main power to hoard money and wealth, in the 19th century. In most cases, it is the Jews. Perhaps that was one of the reasons which caused Hitler to begin the anti-Semitic trend, and then the extensive propaganda about the crematoria began... Some of this is true. We do not deny all of it.

Watch Schindler's List. Every Jew was forced to wear a yellow star on his clothing. The Jews were degraded and termed "dirty mice." Tom and Jerry was made in order to change the Europeans' perception of mice. One of terms used was "dirty mice." I'd like to tell you that... It should be noted that mice are very cunning...and dirty.

No ethnic group or people operates in such a clandestine manner as the Jews."

Hasan Bolkhari by the way, holds a Ph.D in Islamic philosophy. However, if you just thought there is probably no big difference between the nazis and the professors of Islamic philosophy, you are gravely mistaken. Nazis never had so much electricity:

Fisking Hamas

Today Ministry of Offence looks at the charter of the organization now in control of Palestinian Autonomy, deemed to turn State, as decided by president of United States and prime-minister of Israel. The Hamas Charter. The Introduction has the most specific information as to the purpose of the document:

"This is the Charter of the Islamic Resistance (Hamas) which will reveal its face, unveil its identity, state its position, clarify its purpose, discuss its hopes, call for support to its cause and reinforcement, and for joining its ranks. For our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave..."

Today we will be doing some revealing of our own:

"And if the People of the Scripture had believed, it had been better for them. Some of them are believers; but most of them are evil-doers."

First, the People of the Scripture (notice the capitalization, the Tora evidently commands respect) are Jews of course, not nerds. But maybe nerds need to be careful too. Who knows what the authors were thinking. The interesting thing here is however the "some but not all" sentiment. Does it means that in the eyes of the Allah one can be Jewish and not evil?

"They have incurred anger from their Lord, and wretchedness is laid upon them."

Maybe not. Ok, so sue us. But what's up with the "their" Lord? I thought Muslims are monotheistic? Or maybe they only worship one lord, but don't dispute their plurality? Isn't that polytheism?

"Israel will rise and will remain erect until Islam eliminates it as it had eliminated its predecessors."

There is only one problem. Eleminating predcessors? Never really happened. In fact, arabs pretty much lost every single war they fought. Ever. Does it has anything to do with the fact that...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement draws its guidelines from Islam; derives from it its thinking, interpretations and views about existence, life and humanity; refers back to it for its conduct; and is inspired by it in whatever step it takes."

Maybe building extrimist religion based on the "Art Of War" would be more productive? If they weren't so numerouse, it could mean trouble...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement is one of the wings of the Muslim Brothers in Palestine."

Apperently, Hamas is not a regional organization, but a branch of international network!

"I have created Man and Devil for the purpose of their worship"

What about the women? Was it Jewish god who created them? Or, maybe they mean to say that Woman is the Devil? This is getting interesting...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine has been an Islamic Waqf throughout the generations and until the Day of Resurrection, no one can renounce it or part of it, or abandon it or part of it. .... This is the status [of the land] in Islamic Sharia, and it is similar to all lands conquered by Islam by force, and made thereby Waqf lands upon their conquest, for all generations of Muslims until the Day of Resurrection."

And so, any land ever touched by Muslim army belongs to Islam forever. What's that you said about peace... ?

"[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. For renouncing any part of Palestine means renouncing part of the religion"

Gotcha!

Cartoon World War: Act 3.

Synopsis: In an unprovoked and unannounced act of cartoon violence Danish government attacks Muslim cleric Muhammad. Following self-restraint period of half a year, Muslim world strikes back with a case of severe cartoon Holocaust denial syndrome. Today Israel is taking the fight back were it belongs.

Once again Ministry of Offence is bringing you exclusive news from the battlefront. Following recently announced Iranian contest for best Holocaust-defying cartoon, Israeli artists decided to take matters into their own hands, and launch a creative counter strike.
In a gravity-defying act of courageous search for the inner peace, proactive self deprecation,, and selfless self promotion, Israeli painter Amitai Sendy jump-started an "anti-Semitic cartoon contest", designed to show the world who hates Jews the most. According to Amitai:

"We thought it would be a much braver thing to do to publish cartoons about ourselves, rather than our adversaries"

In a related act of self deprecation, Danish cartoonists have recently pronounced their support for muslim retatliation against Danish cartoonists, and agreed to publish the best Holocaust-denying cartoons in their newspaper.

President of Iran, Danish cartoonists, were unavailable for comment at the time of publishing of this article. So, to help our readers understand most recent developments our War Experts drafted a map of current offensives:

The seating torture

Here, at the Ministry of Offence, we are forever committed to holding strong bounds with fellow colleagues. Recently, the Russian minister of defense, Mr. Sergey Ivanov, has been taking a beating on the issue of an obscure Russian soldier Andrei Sichov. We decided to go on an offensive of our own.

The story of private Sichov is an ordinary one, one of many. Got recruited. Did not show promise as a soldier. Consequently was subjected to severe and repeated disciplining by more experienced soldiers. Instead of thanking his comrades, Sichov stubbornly refused to acknowledge his mistakes and developed gidronefroz of left kidney and gangrene in lower part of body. As a consequece both legs and reproductive organs had to be amputated. The private is currently fighting for his alleged life in one of the best hospitals of Russia, thus continuing to fuel a campaign of disinformation and astroturfing against the minister of defense Ivanov. It is time now, to finaly give Ivanov a fighting chance to defend his good name. Ivanov:

"In case of Andrei Sichov, if we can trust preliminary results of an investigation, the reason for the infliction of severe harm to his health became prolonged, compulsory seating"

Still here

Anti-semitism I mean. Not in some distant land, but in civilized Chicago. Europe is still much worse, but things don't look good right now. And we all know what this keeps leading to over the past two thousand years...

Fruits of "Labor"

Today Israel's party Kadima, in a noble impulse, planted 100 pine trees on government land.

Some might still remember that they promised to plant one tree for each new member of party. Maybe the party is not as big as claim the polls? Or Olmert's team simply meant to plant one tree for each new member of Kadima in next Knesset? Either way, Haim Ramon promised that one thing is for sure: "Kadima is an imperishable movement, it is like a tree that will bear fruits f or many years". And now we know what those fruits are.

The Golem of Jerusalem

"They are Nazgul. Neither living nor dead"

Aragorn, "Lord of the Rings"

A comatose prime minister is maintaining a significant lead in the polls on national elections. Does anything seems wrong with this picture? As newspapers describe it, the life of Israel's prime minister is once again out of danger. After undergoing a life-saving operation while remaining in a comatose state, Ariel Sharon's condition continues to be stable and comatose. I wish I could wish him well, but right now, every time I write his name I have to stay my hand not to add "zihrono le braha" as they do in Hebrew when mentioning the dead. It is pretty obvious what's happening. Sharon's body is kept animated by machines until the 28 of march, the day of elections, despite the fact that there is no life left in that body. A Golem of national significance. This is wrong, and immoral. Let the man go. I am not talking about euthanasia. There is nothing left for that. Just let him go, and stop this circus of death.

Oslo Extreme Edition

It seems like many people underestimate the geopolitical significance of Hamas wining the elections in PA. Lets recollect the results of Oslo accords. They are easy to enumerate:

1. Fatah was given legitimacy
2. given control of today's PA territory
3. given autonomy
4. given billions of dollars (over next 13 years)
5. 30 000 kalashnikov machine guns
6. But most importantly they got license to kill. And kill they did. Since 1993 thousands of Jews have been murdered, and many times that number injured, or lost their relatives.

Hamas is now repeating Fatah's infamous road to fame. On the surface, it would appear there is not much in common between Oslo accords and election of Hamas to PA's parliament. Fatah leaders were brought from abroad; Hamas came from Gaza. Fatah signed an accord. Hamas has won elections. But that's were differences begin to fade:

1. Hamas is getting legitimacy. Putin, then Shirak, then Erdogan, and no doubt soon many more leaders are on track with the goal.

2. Hamas got control of PA. Only this time, they didn't had to sign any accords to get it. This time, they did it while saying *we want Israel destroyed*.

3. Hamas got now more then a promise of autonomy, they inherited the promise of their own country. Made by no one else then president of US, and prime minister of Israel. Again, no accords needed to be signed.

4. Hamas is starting to get the money that used to go to Fatah. And Ehud Olmer, prime minister of Israel, was the first to push that shovel. Only this time the money will be used more efficiently, as Hamas is less rotten organization then Fatah.

5. Hamas got it's weapons. Only now they don't need kalashnikovs. Now they are importing rockets through the Gaza - Egypt border, another present of Israeli government.

6. They not only inherited the license to kill. Now they are asking for - and getting - license to talk about it in all honesty.

We are in the beginning of the same old spiral now, but on a new level. Similar sequence of events is about to take place, only this time the ride will be faster and more violent.

Short version of my blog

Power Games

The Austrian DerStandard took an interview from Ilka Schröder, an ex EU parlamentarian. In it Ilka gives her explanation to EU willingness to finance PA, and, despite well known facts of misuse of the money, refusal to investigate the money trail. Her explanation comes down to EU's desire to stick it to the Man, by failing US attempts to solve middle-eastern conflicts. This is a fight for spheres of influence. In her words, the policy is supported by very wide range of countries in EU. Which makes me ask. Would they still do the same, if US did not involved itself in Israel's troubles? Whatever Europe did, US, despite good intentions has been doing more harm then good.

And any way you put it, this makes me wonder: didn't momie told them that killing people is evil?

Mr. Olmert's Black List

I decided to make a list of all Olmert's recent strategic mistakes, and/or really illegal actions while serving as a *temporary* replacement for a prime minister:

1. Allowing Marwan Barguti to participate in elections, and to turn his jail cell into elections office.

2. Allowing Hamas to participate in elections

3. Allowing Arabs living in Jerusalem to participate in elections (division of Jerusalem anyone?)

4. Transferring money to PA with not just Fatah, but now Hamas also in power

5. Letting the resolution about disarming Iran from WMD go to UN security council with a quote about creating a WMD free Middle East (how about just disarming Israel, without ever disarming anyone else?)

6. Creating an unnecessary and brutal confrontation between Israeli police and Israeli citizens in Amona

7. Refusing to create an independent investigation comeete to investigate Amona events

Update 1:
8. Failure to prevent wold-wide legitimization of Hamas

Just for fun. Did I forget anything important? Made a mistake? Let me know.
I have a feeling I will update this list in the future.

Economy of Terror

My fellow blogger Woland, makes an important observation: construction of fusion reactors is stalling because that would collapse oil economies, as fusion reactors do not consume as much oil compared to pressurized or Boiling Water Nuclear Reactors, which in turn account for 2/3 of all oil consumption. Then, he concludes that oil-based economies as well as sponsorship of terror will deteriorate. I agree with the former, but want to argue against the later.

1. Oil Barons will still be selling oil, even if not as much as before, because other sectors of economy will still need oil (cars?) and fusion reactors will not replace existing ones that fast.

2. Even if the money river starts to dry out, oil Barons are still filthy reach. They made investments of many billions of dollars into western economies, and that money is still a very big pile, and delivering profit.

3. No matter how much economy will suffer, leaders of terrorist states will always put financing of terror as a priority. Which means that if there will be any money at all (and in any economy there is always at least some money) it will go south.

4. Eventually Western world will start sending money to those failing economies. Not enough to revive the economy, especially given the corruption, but more then enough to take some more western lives.

5. Financing terror is not *that* expensive. For example, Iran is spending in the order of several 100 million dollars a year on support of various external terrorist organizations. Even for a failing economy this sum is not out of rich.

In short, it will make a dent. It will not make any difference.

Yet another twist

Here is a funny quote from Ehud Olmert:

"They did amazing things for the country, and we do not want to make them fell like they don't belong. Part of the responsibility for the hard feelings for them is on their spiritual and political leaders, but I am not releasing the government from trying to negotiate with them".

If I didn't know what country he is talking about, I would have thought he is talking about Palestinians. Of course, Mr. Olmert refers to his own subjects, the settlers. Instead, Olmert is transferring to Hamas 45 million dollars - right after attack in Petah Tikva, and bombing of Kibutz (should I call it a settlement?). The decision is now final. And here is the twist. Just 2 weeks ago, Israeli court made a decision that Hamas must pay 20 million dollars to a family for murdering some of their relatives in Alon More. Now that the 45 million belong to Hamas, isn't Olmert obligated to act on court decision, and transfer 20 million to terror victims? By not doing so, the state of Israel is not only breaking all moral laws there are to break, not only sponsoring terror, but also doing so with the money that belongs to victims of that terror, and doing it morning after yet another terror attack.

Mr. Olmert, if you are reading this (as I am sure you are) remember this: I have family in Petah Tikva; If they got hurt, I am going to sue you.
How is that for a twist?

The Beauty and the Beast

Now, that the Hamas won the elections, the situation in Israel has changed once more. Each side has new difficulties and goals. Lets take a quick look at them.

Hamas

1. Budget. PA's annual budget is 1.3 billion $, most of which coming from Europe, some from US and some from taxes Israel is charging for PA. There are 130,000 people sitting on PA's payroll, 40,000 - 60,000 of which are occationally armed and angry.

2. Economy. Hamas promised better future. Now they need to deliver. But how can one build an economy in a state of permanent warfare (the fundamental purpose for Hamas's existence), corruption (which will continue), monopolies (that are too powerful to be dismantled) and economic dependencies?

Israel and Kadima (the ruling party).

1. Conception. The conception was that Hamas cannot win the elections. They did. All intelligence was wrong, all predictions were of track, all decisions were misguided. Who is to blame? What to do to prevent this from happening again?

2. Elections. Still on track for March 28, with Kadima holding a solid lead. How to prevent the public from finding out what role played Kadima-lead government in not preventing Hamas's victory? How to prevent crumbling of the party?

3. Politics. With Hamas at the helm of PA, how can Israeli government justify unilateral disengagement, given that now it can't claim the PA will take care of things? On the other side, how can they negotiate with Hamas?

Europe

1. Hamas. How to give PA more money, now that terrorist organization is in charge? How to justify all those years of mistakes otherwise? Same goes for Israeli government.

Prediction.

Hamas is like the bastard child. You can't love it, you can't hate it. It's outlaw, but now it came back to remind of past sins and ask for money. Worse, it killed the firstborn bastard child, and wants the Estate to itself. What to do? How to save face, now that the bastard child threatens to tell the world who he is, or even light up the Mansion?

Here is what will happen. Europe and Israel will slip Hamas in pretty dresses, and try to sell that to the public. Hamas, in need of piles of euros and dollars, will play along, but only just. They will never stop calling for destruction of Israel, or blow people up. It's in their blood. They will only hold out until Israeli elections are over, and Olmert, the disengagement champion, won the race. European newspapers will start writing about reformed Hamas, and all those people that were surprised and terrified by Hamas's win, will start getting used to the fact that Hamas is the new Fatah. The going argument will be "if Fatah could reform, so can Hamas". Of course, Fatah never did, but it wont matter. In Israel Olmert already agreed to negotiate with Hamas. Of course, he mentioned some conditions. But the basics are there. He is ready. Not that Hamas would of course. Getting their hands dirty like that. But that is not the point. The point is, the message to Israeli voter: it is business as usual. Vote. For. Us. Of course, not that giving money to Hamas will make Europe and Israel terrorist sponsoring states. They been sponsoring terrorism for a while now, in form of Fatah. The only holdouts will be US and Arab countries. Iran (technically speaking, not an Arab country) will start sending Hamas new rockets. And maybe a nuclear bomb in a couple of years. Hamas will start diverting public attention from economics to war. Of course, Fatah been doing it for years, so obviously, the war will need to be bigger this time, not to loose anyone's attention. And it is possible. Hamas will take over PA's security forces (he who pays the money is the boss after all), and merge them with their own forces. This will be done under the flag of "putting all militias under one rule" - something that EU and US actually demanded from Fatah to do. This will provide future proof that Hamas is reforming. Instead, they will simply be putting even more terrorists on PA's payroll. This unified army, that can go up to 100,000, will be more then enough to do something atrocious. For example, conquer Jerusalem. Just one city. And then stop, and open negotiations, holding the Jewish citizens hostage.

Holocaust: old and new

It is the International day of the Holocaust today. Today we commemorate the fallen. Everyone, in his own way. Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert, in a grotesque gesture of supreme duplicity, ordered the transfer of 200 million shekel (about 45 million American dollars) to the new rulers of Palestinian Autonomy. The Hamas.

The same Hamas that does not recognizes the very state the money is coming from.

The same Hamas that many times declared that it seeks the destruction of Israel.

The same Hamas that murdered hundreds and mutilated thousands of Israeli citizens.
Subjects of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. His kinsmen. His relatives.
What kind of dramatic irony is that?

I am overwhelmed and speechless.

The soup that eats like a meal

It is often hard, or even impossible to label things black or white. In terms of math, some are 0, some are 1, but most are well in between. The life, as people say, is not all black and white, there are shades of gray. Indeed, only blind can disagree with that, and I doubt many of them actually would. Yet, when it comes to interpreting what those grays mean in our pathetic human brain, people inevitably try to relate the grays to one of the only two extremes. For practical purposes it is sometimes an inevitable necessity. For many things in this world, like life and death, are white and black, and the two worlds (the gray and the black and white) need to be reconciled.

Here is where the problems start. The approaches to reconciliation are at least two:

1. The soup that eats like a meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because in this case for all intents and purposes, it works just like black (or white)."

2. The soup IS the meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because it's color is a matter of perspective".

While the difference might at first seem subtle, it is in fact as big as differences get. #1 simply admits that sometimes in choice (much like in a war) precision needs to be sacrificed for accuracy. #2 suggests that any choice can be as precise or as accurate as one wants it to be. This assumption not only allows to shift around the point of origin of this "coordinate system", but turn the entire color scale into a complete mix of colors, allowing completely different colors to neighbor each other (while remaining seemingly coherent in one's head). This, I think, is the cornerstone argument of moral relativists. And the source of their confusion. They don't see the choice #1, and assume that the only way to disagree with them is to imagine that the world is black and white. But sometimes all the soup needs is a little bit of steering.

Natural Election

Have you ever looked under a microscope and saw a dancing hamster?

Let me rephrase that:

Is it justifiable to ask a candidate for a public office to withdraw his candidacy in favor of someone else?*

On one hand, no. While a candidate is running, the voter has a choice, and can exercise his democratic right to choose. If a candidate withdraws from elections then in effect he takes away a choice from the voter. Since the withdrawal is being made to help another candidate (and not for, say, medical reason), then he also in effect tries to make the choice for the voter. This effect, if not the intent, is counter intuitive and anti democratic.

On the other hand yes, as it is perfectly feasible (and happened before) that the two ideologically close candidates will split 60%, while the third candidate, representing a minority blessed with near-absence of leaders, will win the elections with 40% of popular vote. If the majority had even more leaders, then the situation gets even worse.

In other words, democratic elections automatically create problem #2, optimal solution to which demands having at most 2 candidates, which turns out to be the problem #1, i.e., non-democratic elections. In fact the Second Round was design to do just that: to force optimization condition, and trade soundness of the solution for completeness. A poor trade.

And this is the dancing hampster, ladies and gentlemen, little question that shows the big inadequacy of modern election system. How can we fix it? What do you think?

-------------------

* The background:
Very recently Likud (right-wing party in Israel) was having elections for the leader. 3 people were left standing in the end, Netaniyahu, Shalom, and Feiglin. With Netaniyahu keeping the lead, Feiglin, not-so-distant third, but ideologically closer to Netaniahu then Shalom, was urged to withdraw his candidacy in favor of the leading candidate, to solidify his lead, as well as accused of stealing Netaniahu's brownie points, and the otherwise inevitable victory.

Resurection

After long silence I am returning the the English-speaking blogsphere. Initially I was reluctant to do so, but the endless emails and home visits I was getting from my enormous pull of fans, elevating to threats to my well being, demanding my glorious return... have prompted me to give back some respect, and jump-start a fresh, popular... OK. Enough with the astroturfing. I am back.

Expect the unexpected!

New blog

I don't like multiplying blogs, but this time my hand was forced, my foot was dragged, and my head was kicked :)
I am registering a new blog on LJ. For now mainly to have an avatar. If the posting thing will progress, it will be in russian, it will be more (but not too) personal, and it will be green.
It's hard to be green.

My little prophecy: the disengagement

Those are extrapolations from what I read in the press. I can be completely wrong.

During the disengagement, at start, things will go according to plan, and huge manpower will be in place to do it. Hamas will bomb until the moment actual transfer begins, and then stop. IDF will let it.
The removal of protesters will quickly take an unexpected turn and will become a chaos - not on palestinian side, on ours. News about events inside will be sparse and contradictory, but they will be on all channels. Mainstream media will repeat everything Sharon will say is happening, which will be far from truth. IDF will prevent cellphones from calling, communication devices from working, and will not let journalists in.
The entire country will stand on a brink of chaos as most police will be out to deal with protesters or in Gaza. With no police around in the *entire country* criminals will go wild. Protesters, on which police will concentrate, will freeze traffic and disrupt whatever they plan to disrupt. Prisons will get filled with jews of all ages down to 13 year olds, and the rest of the arrested will be put in ... yes, there is only one name for it: concentration camps. They will be concentrated in camps. Children 2 - 13 will be taken away from imprisoned parents and put in foster homes or with relatives. Later court will attempt to void rights of those parents to their children, and put them for reeducation in liberal Kibutz.
It is too hard to tell if disengagement will actually happen. All bets are open, and the crazyest things might happen. Ironically, arabs themselves will not expririence much chaos. If autonomy police will try to do anything, they get couple of bullets and quickly chicken out. Hamas will be the most organized force and will make sure everything plays out it's way on the arab side.
If the transfer will be accomplished, IDF will try to stay in the houses for time being. But, as soon as civilians are out, or before, Hamas will resume bombardment. If IDF will keep itself together they will do a large scale operation inside Gaza to stop it. Otherwise they will leave Gush Katif in huge rush, on the heals of settlers themselves. South Lebanon style.

This is my prediction, which might be untrue. I very much hope so.

Nothing new under the sun

I watched a movie yesterday (name didn't stick) about American woman marrying a Muslim and going with him to Iran of the 80s. The movie is western, but Iran is portrayed very well. And what I saw, although it was nothing I didn't know about, was quite a surprise. Before, if someone asked me about Iran I would think "evil ayatollahs", "nuclear warheads", "religious fanatics". That's about all I know about Iran. But when watching the movie I suddenly realized I am looking at something painfully familiar. Something I actually understand. It looked so much like Soviet Union period Russia! Not in big things but in many small details that merge into an atmosphere. The scale of gray everywhere; the poor apartments; the wooden doors; the dirty walls; the attitude of relatives; the job trouble; the patriarchal society (like in Russian periphery); the religious zealotry; the women wearing exact same kerchiefs as Russian orthodox nuns (only in Iran it's all the woman); the dissidents; the "revolution" with it's guardians and beneficiaries; mixture of fear, idolatry, and hate of the "system" in the air; the feeling of a lost generation.
Scary. It has the taste of evil empire in that movie. While I realize that movies distort reality, I also know that it looks real enough. Now, Iran could go down the path of USSR and disintegrate on it's own. But I doubt it. Communists made the mistake of going against Russian orthodox church. Ayatollahs are the “church”. Communists were afraid to use nuclear weapons. Ayatollahs dream to use them as soon as possible. Communists had Regan. Ayatollahs have Bush.
Do the math.

0050156873

United States Patent Application: 0050156873

This is not a joke. Do not attempt to laught. Microsoft wants to patent smile. Or the computer's "smile face" to be more exact. So smile away, while you can. Soon, you will be able to do so only with MS permission. On Windows? Just agree to the EULA, giving away all but your golden tooth. On Mac? Pay royalties to MS. On Linux? Better smile while you can.

I know I will.

And when the patent is granted, I will be smiling illegali. Because I am a rebel. Because I have no regard for the law. Because I am a danger to the society. Because I want to empeede innovation happening in Redmond. Because I am evil.

:-x

Announcement

Demonstration

Today 19th July there is going to be a demonstration in many major USA cities against transfer of jewish population of Gaza strip. List of cities is on the website. See you there!

The right to opinion

It is not a big secret that people often have opinions about things they cannot possibly understand. Such opinions are usually based on second hand information or misinformation, and are nothing more then idle talk by people that don't know any better. On the other hand, there are people that were in the midst of the events, smelled the gunpowder, and formed their own opinion based on first hand experience. So, it should be very simple to make out who has the right to an opinion and who doesn't, right? Not so fast.

For example, what if two people that lived through the same events ended up with opposite opinions? Clearly both had first-hand experience, how come they didn't reached the same conclusions? Maybe their experience wasn't the same? Maybe it is not even about the experience? Take Israel of today. Everyone lives in the same country, but somehow left and right are, to put it gently, in huge disagreement.

Another example. If in order to have an opinion one has to experience the events first-hand, do we ever have hope to know our history? First, just a tiny portion of human history is covered by authors that claim to be witnesses of the events they describe (and way too many of those texts are forgeries, biased or were copied or translated incorrectly). More important, historians that read those originals are not witnesses, and hence are not equipped to separate truth from a lie, let alone to fill in the missing gaps of information! Yet I doubt anyone will claim that good books on history do not exist. Somehow (not often enough) historians do manage to get something right about things long gone and far away. How?

Here is my answer. Every person has his own, built in ability to make out lie from truth and right from wrong. Those who use it, slowly build up a system of values and evaluations. If one tries to at least keep the system self-consistent, lie will always attract lie, and truth will attract truth. The more lies one lets in voluntarily (and there are so many twisted reasons for this to happen!), the more lies will be later added without him even noticing. Our opinions are formed based on those values. The less lies and contradictions exist in the value system, the greater that opinion's right is to exist.

The only way to evaluate other person's opinion for quality is to first evaluate the person himself. This is highly subjective, as our own system of values might be wrong. I personally do not see escape from this deadlock. The only thing we can do is do our best.

In any event, "smelling the gunpowder" is just as valuable to understanding what is going on, as sitting in a bus is valuable to understanding how it's engine works. It can provide some quality info, but only if you know how to read it, and only up to a point.

But then again, this is only my opinion.

Young Monopolist Guide

So, you have an illigal monopoly. Great! Here is a good strategy:
Say you have a monopoly on computer operating system. Adware software makes a lot of money on your customers.
Step 1: Buy the company that creates the best Anti-adware program on the market
Step 2: Bundle the Anti-adware product with your illigal monopoly for free
Step 3: increase price on your illigal monopoly to cover the cost of Anti-adware program
Step 4: Watch yourself becoming the de-facto monopolist in Anti-adware market
Step 5: Buy the company that creates the best adware product on the market
Step 6: Stop blocking (only) it with your monopolistic Anti-adware program
Step 7: Watch yourself becoming the de-facto monopolist in adware market
Step 8: Increase price on your illigal monopoly to cover cost of the adware program
Step 9: Enjoy

For real-world example google for Microsoft. They are now doing just that.

Yellow submarine

This is a keeper. Russian Ortodox church is going to finance ongoing operations of a nuclear submarine. It is called the "St. Georgy the victor". In your face, Bin Laden!

Lunacy

Israeli government just signed a 15 year, 2.5 billion $$ deal to finance terror against itself.

Imagine you live in a desert. The only source of water on your land is a well located right next to the border with your very bad neighbor. So, you give that well to that neighbor as a present. Now you don't have any water left to drink. You are a man of principle however, and will not pay the neighbor for that water because when he was accepting the gift he promised to use the money from selling your water to buy bullets to kill you. Instead, you hire a person to be a middleman between you and your neighbor, and buy the water from him. The middleman, another neighbor, happily agrees although he has his own water to sell you. He wants the other neighbor to buy the bullets.

Back to reality. Once upon a time Barak gave Israel's only source of gas to Palestinians as a present. Now Sharon signed a 2.5 billion $ 15 year deal to buy gas from Egypt. Which signed a 2.5 billion $ 15 year deal to buy gas from Palestinians. Despite the fact that Egypt has a surplus of it's own gas, and has no buyers.

Simple questions

Anybody cares to answer?

General William "Kip" Ward, sent by Bush to middle east to be his right hand in working with Israelis and Palestinians, says that it will take Palestinian autonomy (PA) 10 years to gain control of law, order and it's own armed forces. In middle east things move very fast. Predicting something one week in advance is a very unsafe bet. In 10 years all assumptions general bases his estimation on will be gone 100 times over. In other words "10 years" = "maybe in 10 years maybe never. Not before". Two questions:

1) If PA is not in control who is? And who is going to take control over Jewish settlements that Ariel Sharon wants to evacuate? That's right, Hamas, the real power in Gaza strip. So, why are we doing this again?

2) Is Israeli and US leadership stupid or evil to want to create a sovereign country out of this mess? Worse, Bush wants territorial continuity for this new international entity. It means literally cutting Israel in two in order to create what again?!

Trojan Guards

Seems like the most colorful stories from history of humanity were invented either by malice or incompetence. Only later to become great analogies for events in real life. The story of Trojan Horse is one of those. Troy or no Troy, just how big would it have to be to fit all those warriors inside? How heavy? How did they moved it on rough terrain, on wheels that at the time had no axis because it wasn't invented yet? How clueless would Trojans have to be to not even take a look inside a wooden box of "enough space to fit an assault team" proportions? How clueless did Greeks had to be to leave a defenseless team of warriors in the horse, at the mercy of Trojan stupidity?

In short, Trojan horse was not ment to be. Yet, the idea of "Trojan horse" is alive and kicking. Meet Ariel Sharon. One of the most celebrated heroes in Israeli history. One of the most capable generals Israeli army ever had to offer, the man behind some of the most crucial victories of Israel Defense Forces. Co-founder (with Har-Zion) of the famous counter-terror Paratrooper Unit 101. Inspirer of the movement to settle Judea and Samaria. Co-creator of the major right wing Likud party. National political leader. Prime minister. Nation's savior. A living legend. Arik Sharon, the Man and the Steamer.

From the beginning Sharon's ambitions were very big, and he never was right- or left- wing. For example, in the beginning of his career he almost created a party by unifying whatever he was organizing at the time with radical left wing party of the time. That party eventually backed out after realizing who they are dealing with. So he joined Likud instead.

But long before that he was a soldier of Hagana. Being led by left wing ideologists Hagana was acting against Etzel and Lehi, the other two jewish military organizations of the time. This activity culminated in the sucking of Altalena, weapons-filled ship brought in by Etzel in the midst of the first war with Arabs. During the incident Hagana ("Palmah" at the time) soldiers were ordered to fire on Jewish sailors on the ship. To stop the bloodshed, trying to prevent war between brothers, Etzel soldiers laid down arms without resistance. Name of commander of soldiers that fired on Altalena was by the way Itzhak Rabin. Etzel veterans say if the ship wasn't sunk the entire Jerusalem would be in our hands in 1948...

Another big "activity" of Hagana was so called operation "Season" (1944 - 1945) aka "the hunting season". There was the Big Season, during which Hagana operatives kidnapped undercover Etzel operatives and handed them over into hands of British army. At that time Sharon was going to join Hagana, but did not do so because his father asked him not to. There was also the Little Season. During Little Season Hagana soldiers were only beating up and torturing Etzel and Lehi activists. According to Ben-Ami Zamir, still alive today, Sharon was head of one of such "assault" groups. He walked everywhere with his group and hoe's handle in his hands. Ben-Ami was "lucky" enough to be personally beaten with that handle by the future hero of Israel. Sharon simply showed up at the coffee house he was in, asked for some lemonade, and when Ben-Ami bended to get some, stroke him down. His group then trashed the coffee house, and escaped in a truck...

I wonder if he still keeps that club around.

King of the Hill

Today's power pyramid in Israel is a little strange. There is the prime minister, who has all the power, and there is the President, who has no power. What is he good for then? A lot!

For some dark and deep reasons, the most ranked (but not the most powerful!) men in (any) country automatically become target for cult of personality. People like to have someone to look up to. Especially if the position was obtained through some obscure rules, rather then elections. Mystery. Almost divine intervention.

When the most ranked man is also the most powerful, problems emerge. Power + Cult of Personality = Dictatorship. USA for example is always sitting right on the edge of that cliff. If not for centuries strong democratic traditions, and "no third term" rule, money with face of Bill Clinton would be the least of our concern right now. Still shadows of president clans hunt American politics. Kennedy's clan. Bush's clan. Clinton's... wife. And so on.

Other countries fall right down the cliff on the very first step. Russia is a great example of how the most ranked/powerful man amplifies his cult of personality to stay in power. That would be difficult if Putin was a mere prime-minister with a powerless president looking over his shoulder.

In Israel President dodges the bullet of cult of personality for the prime minister, and the fact that he is powerless is the best invention of Israeli system, and the best obstacle against people that want to stay in power longer then they should.

Speed Bumps

So, according to some British scientists, light does go slower then light. Sort of. They say they detected that light slows down a bit, after a while. Of course, this will not remove any paradoxes, only add some. After all, the slowing, as I understand, must be relative to the light speed, not me and you. Hum.

I wonder if it is possible that other constants steer of their course. For example Pi or e. Say, at some point, integral of e^n will no longer be equal to itself + C. Or equation who's only imprecision is Pi would be less exact with respect to what it tries to describe, then the precision of Pi itself.

And maybe light doesn't slows down after all.

"Will Aim For Money"

I have an idea. Someone should pass a law banning people from working as full time journalists, writers and poets.

Take science for example. Scientist does some experiments or computations, and writes a paper. That paper will be published (if it is good) because it is written by a professional in what the paper is about, not by a professional in writing a "paper". If that same person was spending most of his day writing something, he wouldn't be called a scientist, but a charlatan, a daydreamer, a profane... Unless he gets paid. Then he becomes a writer.

I say something smells here. Writers that know how to write but have no idea about things they are writing are like mercenaries - they shoot for fun, but aim for money.

All we need is people who actually know something from their professional experience (be it politics, travels, whatever). Not everybody, just the tiny percentage that has the talent. Then we will have much fewer books and newspapers. Much fewer useless books and newspapers.

And they will be worth reading.