Lets talk about today's geopolitical landscape, and trends. There are several important things happening today, that will have far-reaching consequences in the future, and it is important to understand them. This post is not so much my own conclusions, as it is a digest of several analytical articles.
Retreat on Hamas Front
First, there is the Hamas victory in Palestinian general elections. The trends that will set the course of events for the next few years are evident already. Hamas was able to bring 88 parliamentarians under their flag (more then two thirds), and immediately took away from Abbas ability to block parliament's decisions. The rule in PA is now parliamentary (belongs to Hamas), and not presidential (belongs to Fatah). All western powers dealing with Hamas - Israel, US, EU, Russia showed submission, are on retreat, and talk in split tongue. Israel gave Hamas ~45 million dollars. US government cannot give Hamas money, but cheered EU's decision to do just that. Finally, Russia invited Hamas to Kremlin. Despite popular belief, this is not going to hurt Russia. On the contrary, they are setting the stage for EU and US future talks with Hamas, quite possibly with EU and US blessing. This will result in further submissions and pressure on Israel to cave in to more demands. Hamas will try to remain "a good international citizen" while this retreat continues, getting ready to start a war the second it stops. The biggest threat to Hamas is, surprisingly, coming from Al Qaida which recently started pressuring Hamas to turn Gaza, and then West Bunk into Taliban-style state. Given Hamas's Muslim roots, it will be very hard for them to balance between being a good international citizen, and not upsetting their own supporters or provoking Al Qaida retaliation against them.
Retreat on Iraq Front
Whether or not going into Iraq was a good idea, Bush's handling of subsequent war in Iraq, that developed between Suni militia, Iranian agents and Zarkawis Al Qaida on one side, and US, British, and Iraqi regular army on another, is a failure. US army, despite winning nearly all battles it fought, is loosing the war. Despite having unlimited financial and (Iraqi) human resources, is failing to create a fight-worthy regular army of Iraq. High rate of desertions, Al Qaida infiltration, poor training are making Iraqi army a useless body of firearms bearers. The second coalition forces retreat from Iraq this army will face impossible odds and either crumble or will be completely taken over by Al Qaida. And retreat is exactly what US and British forces are starting to do. By 2007/8 Iraq will be free of western armies, and split, if not in name then in practice, into 3 entities: Kurds under US influence in north, Sunis + Al Qaida on West, Shiits under Iranian influence in South. 2 out of 3 parts of Iraq (excluding the Kurds) will become terrorist states. Oil production will soar, as different forces will start cashing in on their new-found fortune. US's credibility among the common men in the middle east, shaken after the early 90's retreat, will be shattered. Next time US will need local cooperation in the region they will face a huge problem of mistrust.
Israeli Elections
Kadima led by Olmert will win the elections. The threat to Olmert's rule will come from within. Kadima is made up of people that united around a specific man and a specific idea. The man, Ariel Sharon, is now on his death bed, and idea, unilateral disengagement, is becoming more and more controversial, now that the Hamas has won the elections in PA. Already there are two camps forming in Kadima around this issue. Which means simple thing really - the government will be heavily influenced by the second biggest party in coalition. I expect the results of nearing general elections to be strongly underwhelming for Kadima, making it even more dependent on other coalition members. In all probability Olmert will choose to go with Avoda and not Likud, since caving in to social demands of Amir Peretz will be less intrusive then caving in to political demands of Netaniahu. Given Mr. Peretz's track record, it is as good as tossing the economy out of the window, in slow motion. The government will not live long (a year or two) but long enough to cause some major strategic and economical damage. Olmert's indecisiveness and lack of clear strategy will become more and more apparent, and Kadima will disappear from political map within several years, torn apart by both inside and outside forces.
And what are your thoughts of the situation?
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Monday, March 06, 2006
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Manifesto against Islamism
Taken from Irina Tsukerman
MANIFESTO: Together facing the new totalitarianism
After having overcome fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism, the world now faces a new totalitarian global threat: Islamism.
We, writers, journalists, intellectuals, call for resistance to religious totalitarianism and for the promotion of freedom, equal opportunity and secular values for all.
The recent events, which occurred after the publication of drawings of Muhammed in European newspapers, have revealed the necessity of the struggle for these universal values. This struggle will not be won by arms, but in the ideological field. It is not a clash of civilisations nor an antagonism of West and East that we are witnessing, but a global struggle that confronts democrats and theocrats.
Like all totalitarianisms, Islamism is nurtured by fears and frustrations. The hate preachers bet on these feelings in order to form battalions destined to impose a liberticidal and unegalitarian world. But we clearly and firmly state: nothing, not even despair, justifies the choice of obscurantism, totalitarianism and hatred. Islamism is a reactionary ideology which kills equality, freedom and secularism wherever it is present. Its success can only lead to a world of domination: man's domination of woman, the Islamists' domination of all the others. To counter this, we must assure universal rights to oppressed or discriminated people.
We reject cultural relativism, which consists in accepting that men and women of Muslim culture should be deprived of the right to equality, freedom and secular values in the name of respect for cultures and traditions. We refuse to renounce our critical spirit out of fear of being accused of "Islamophobia", an unfortunate concept which confuses criticism of Islam as a religion with stigmatisation of its believers.
We plead for the universality of freedom of expression, so that a critical spirit may be exercised on all continents, against all abuses and all dogmas.
We appeal to democrats and free spirits of all countries that our century should be one of Enlightenment, not of obscurantism.
12 signatures
Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Chahla Chafiq
Caroline Fourest
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Irshad Manji
Mehdi Mozaffari
Maryam Namazie
Taslima Nasreen
Salman Rushdie
Antoine Sfeir
Philippe Val
Ibn Warraq
Copy this manifesto, spread the word!
MANIFESTO: Together facing the new totalitarianism
After having overcome fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism, the world now faces a new totalitarian global threat: Islamism.
We, writers, journalists, intellectuals, call for resistance to religious totalitarianism and for the promotion of freedom, equal opportunity and secular values for all.
The recent events, which occurred after the publication of drawings of Muhammed in European newspapers, have revealed the necessity of the struggle for these universal values. This struggle will not be won by arms, but in the ideological field. It is not a clash of civilisations nor an antagonism of West and East that we are witnessing, but a global struggle that confronts democrats and theocrats.
Like all totalitarianisms, Islamism is nurtured by fears and frustrations. The hate preachers bet on these feelings in order to form battalions destined to impose a liberticidal and unegalitarian world. But we clearly and firmly state: nothing, not even despair, justifies the choice of obscurantism, totalitarianism and hatred. Islamism is a reactionary ideology which kills equality, freedom and secularism wherever it is present. Its success can only lead to a world of domination: man's domination of woman, the Islamists' domination of all the others. To counter this, we must assure universal rights to oppressed or discriminated people.
We reject cultural relativism, which consists in accepting that men and women of Muslim culture should be deprived of the right to equality, freedom and secular values in the name of respect for cultures and traditions. We refuse to renounce our critical spirit out of fear of being accused of "Islamophobia", an unfortunate concept which confuses criticism of Islam as a religion with stigmatisation of its believers.
We plead for the universality of freedom of expression, so that a critical spirit may be exercised on all continents, against all abuses and all dogmas.
We appeal to democrats and free spirits of all countries that our century should be one of Enlightenment, not of obscurantism.
12 signatures
Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Chahla Chafiq
Caroline Fourest
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Irshad Manji
Mehdi Mozaffari
Maryam Namazie
Taslima Nasreen
Salman Rushdie
Antoine Sfeir
Philippe Val
Ibn Warraq
Copy this manifesto, spread the word!
Monday, February 27, 2006
Synagogeu destroyed in Tajikistan
As it says in the headline, on Feb. 26, 2006 a synagogeu was destroyed in Tajikistan. It wasn't simply central, it was the only synagogue in the country. It wasn't an accident or even a terrorist attack. It was destroyed by order of the government. The newspapers are quiet. The world is busy with the Iraqi mosque.
Keep reading here.
Keep reading here.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Dirty mice
Meet Prof. Hasan Bolkhari, a cultural advisor to the Iranian Education Ministry:
"If you study European history, you will see who was the main power to hoard money and wealth, in the 19th century. In most cases, it is the Jews. Perhaps that was one of the reasons which caused Hitler to begin the anti-Semitic trend, and then the extensive propaganda about the crematoria began... Some of this is true. We do not deny all of it.
Watch Schindler's List. Every Jew was forced to wear a yellow star on his clothing. The Jews were degraded and termed "dirty mice." Tom and Jerry was made in order to change the Europeans' perception of mice. One of terms used was "dirty mice." I'd like to tell you that... It should be noted that mice are very cunning...and dirty.
No ethnic group or people operates in such a clandestine manner as the Jews."
Hasan Bolkhari by the way, holds a Ph.D in Islamic philosophy. However, if you just thought there is probably no big difference between the nazis and the professors of Islamic philosophy, you are gravely mistaken. Nazis never had so much electricity:
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Fisking Hamas
Today Ministry of Offence looks at the charter of the organization now in control of Palestinian Autonomy, deemed to turn State, as decided by president of United States and prime-minister of Israel. The Hamas Charter. The Introduction has the most specific information as to the purpose of the document:
Today we will be doing some revealing of our own:
First, the People of the Scripture (notice the capitalization, the Tora evidently commands respect) are Jews of course, not nerds. But maybe nerds need to be careful too. Who knows what the authors were thinking. The interesting thing here is however the "some but not all" sentiment. Does it means that in the eyes of the Allah one can be Jewish and not evil?
Maybe not. Ok, so sue us. But what's up with the "their" Lord? I thought Muslims are monotheistic? Or maybe they only worship one lord, but don't dispute their plurality? Isn't that polytheism?
There is only one problem. Eleminating predcessors? Never really happened. In fact, arabs pretty much lost every single war they fought. Ever. Does it has anything to do with the fact that...
Maybe building extrimist religion based on the "Art Of War" would be more productive? If they weren't so numerouse, it could mean trouble...
Apperently, Hamas is not a regional organization, but a branch of international network!
What about the women? Was it Jewish god who created them? Or, maybe they mean to say that Woman is the Devil? This is getting interesting...
And so, any land ever touched by Muslim army belongs to Islam forever. What's that you said about peace... ?
Gotcha!
"This is the Charter of the Islamic Resistance (Hamas) which will reveal its face, unveil its identity, state its position, clarify its purpose, discuss its hopes, call for support to its cause and reinforcement, and for joining its ranks. For our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave..."
Today we will be doing some revealing of our own:
"And if the People of the Scripture had believed, it had been better for them. Some of them are believers; but most of them are evil-doers."
First, the People of the Scripture (notice the capitalization, the Tora evidently commands respect) are Jews of course, not nerds. But maybe nerds need to be careful too. Who knows what the authors were thinking. The interesting thing here is however the "some but not all" sentiment. Does it means that in the eyes of the Allah one can be Jewish and not evil?
"They have incurred anger from their Lord, and wretchedness is laid upon them."
Maybe not. Ok, so sue us. But what's up with the "their" Lord? I thought Muslims are monotheistic? Or maybe they only worship one lord, but don't dispute their plurality? Isn't that polytheism?
"Israel will rise and will remain erect until Islam eliminates it as it had eliminated its predecessors."
There is only one problem. Eleminating predcessors? Never really happened. In fact, arabs pretty much lost every single war they fought. Ever. Does it has anything to do with the fact that...
"The Islamic Resistance Movement draws its guidelines from Islam; derives from it its thinking, interpretations and views about existence, life and humanity; refers back to it for its conduct; and is inspired by it in whatever step it takes."
Maybe building extrimist religion based on the "Art Of War" would be more productive? If they weren't so numerouse, it could mean trouble...
"The Islamic Resistance Movement is one of the wings of the Muslim Brothers in Palestine."
Apperently, Hamas is not a regional organization, but a branch of international network!
"I have created Man and Devil for the purpose of their worship"
What about the women? Was it Jewish god who created them? Or, maybe they mean to say that Woman is the Devil? This is getting interesting...
"The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine has been an Islamic Waqf throughout the generations and until the Day of Resurrection, no one can renounce it or part of it, or abandon it or part of it. .... This is the status [of the land] in Islamic Sharia, and it is similar to all lands conquered by Islam by force, and made thereby Waqf lands upon their conquest, for all generations of Muslims until the Day of Resurrection."
And so, any land ever touched by Muslim army belongs to Islam forever. What's that you said about peace... ?
"[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. For renouncing any part of Palestine means renouncing part of the religion"
Gotcha!
Thursday, February 16, 2006
Cartoon World War: Act 3.
Synopsis: In an unprovoked and unannounced act of cartoon violence Danish government attacks Muslim cleric Muhammad. Following self-restraint period of half a year, Muslim world strikes back with a case of severe cartoon Holocaust denial syndrome. Today Israel is taking the fight back were it belongs.
Once again Ministry of Offence is bringing you exclusive news from the battlefront. Following recently announced Iranian contest for best Holocaust-defying cartoon, Israeli artists decided to take matters into their own hands, and launch a creative counter strike.
In a gravity-defying act of courageous search for the inner peace, proactive self deprecation,, and selfless self promotion, Israeli painter Amitai Sendy jump-started an "anti-Semitic cartoon contest", designed to show the world who hates Jews the most. According to Amitai:
In a related act of self deprecation, Danish cartoonists have recently pronounced their support for muslim retatliation against Danish cartoonists, and agreed to publish the best Holocaust-denying cartoons in their newspaper.
President of Iran, Danish cartoonists, were unavailable for comment at the time of publishing of this article. So, to help our readers understand most recent developments our War Experts drafted a map of current offensives:
Once again Ministry of Offence is bringing you exclusive news from the battlefront. Following recently announced Iranian contest for best Holocaust-defying cartoon, Israeli artists decided to take matters into their own hands, and launch a creative counter strike.
In a gravity-defying act of courageous search for the inner peace, proactive self deprecation,, and selfless self promotion, Israeli painter Amitai Sendy jump-started an "anti-Semitic cartoon contest", designed to show the world who hates Jews the most. According to Amitai:
"We thought it would be a much braver thing to do to publish cartoons about ourselves, rather than our adversaries"
In a related act of self deprecation, Danish cartoonists have recently pronounced their support for muslim retatliation against Danish cartoonists, and agreed to publish the best Holocaust-denying cartoons in their newspaper.
President of Iran, Danish cartoonists, were unavailable for comment at the time of publishing of this article. So, to help our readers understand most recent developments our War Experts drafted a map of current offensives:
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
The seating torture
Here, at the Ministry of Offence, we are forever committed to holding strong bounds with fellow colleagues. Recently, the Russian minister of defense, Mr. Sergey Ivanov, has been taking a beating on the issue of an obscure Russian soldier Andrei Sichov. We decided to go on an offensive of our own.
The story of private Sichov is an ordinary one, one of many. Got recruited. Did not show promise as a soldier. Consequently was subjected to severe and repeated disciplining by more experienced soldiers. Instead of thanking his comrades, Sichov stubbornly refused to acknowledge his mistakes and developed gidronefroz of left kidney and gangrene in lower part of body. As a consequece both legs and reproductive organs had to be amputated. The private is currently fighting for his alleged life in one of the best hospitals of Russia, thus continuing to fuel a campaign of disinformation and astroturfing against the minister of defense Ivanov. It is time now, to finaly give Ivanov a fighting chance to defend his good name. Ivanov:
"In case of Andrei Sichov, if we can trust preliminary results of an investigation, the reason for the infliction of severe harm to his health became prolonged, compulsory seating"
The story of private Sichov is an ordinary one, one of many. Got recruited. Did not show promise as a soldier. Consequently was subjected to severe and repeated disciplining by more experienced soldiers. Instead of thanking his comrades, Sichov stubbornly refused to acknowledge his mistakes and developed gidronefroz of left kidney and gangrene in lower part of body. As a consequece both legs and reproductive organs had to be amputated. The private is currently fighting for his alleged life in one of the best hospitals of Russia, thus continuing to fuel a campaign of disinformation and astroturfing against the minister of defense Ivanov. It is time now, to finaly give Ivanov a fighting chance to defend his good name. Ivanov:
"In case of Andrei Sichov, if we can trust preliminary results of an investigation, the reason for the infliction of severe harm to his health became prolonged, compulsory seating"
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Still here
Anti-semitism I mean. Not in some distant land, but in civilized Chicago. Europe is still much worse, but things don't look good right now. And we all know what this keeps leading to over the past two thousand years...
Monday, February 13, 2006
Fruits of "Labor"
Saturday, February 11, 2006
The Golem of Jerusalem
"They are Nazgul. Neither living nor dead"
Aragorn, "Lord of the Rings"A comatose prime minister is maintaining a significant lead in the polls on national elections. Does anything seems wrong with this picture? As newspapers describe it, the life of Israel's prime minister is once again out of danger. After undergoing a life-saving operation while remaining in a comatose state, Ariel Sharon's condition continues to be stable and comatose. I wish I could wish him well, but right now, every time I write his name I have to stay my hand not to add "zihrono le braha" as they do in Hebrew when mentioning the dead. It is pretty obvious what's happening. Sharon's body is kept animated by machines until the 28 of march, the day of elections, despite the fact that there is no life left in that body. A Golem of national significance. This is wrong, and immoral. Let the man go. I am not talking about euthanasia. There is nothing left for that. Just let him go, and stop this circus of death.
Friday, February 10, 2006
Oslo Extreme Edition
It seems like many people underestimate the geopolitical significance of Hamas wining the elections in PA. Lets recollect the results of Oslo accords. They are easy to enumerate:
1. Fatah was given legitimacy
2. given control of today's PA territory
3. given autonomy
4. given billions of dollars (over next 13 years)
5. 30 000 kalashnikov machine guns
6. But most importantly they got license to kill. And kill they did. Since 1993 thousands of Jews have been murdered, and many times that number injured, or lost their relatives.
Hamas is now repeating Fatah's infamous road to fame. On the surface, it would appear there is not much in common between Oslo accords and election of Hamas to PA's parliament. Fatah leaders were brought from abroad; Hamas came from Gaza. Fatah signed an accord. Hamas has won elections. But that's were differences begin to fade:
1. Hamas is getting legitimacy. Putin, then Shirak, then Erdogan, and no doubt soon many more leaders are on track with the goal.
2. Hamas got control of PA. Only this time, they didn't had to sign any accords to get it. This time, they did it while saying *we want Israel destroyed*.
3. Hamas got now more then a promise of autonomy, they inherited the promise of their own country. Made by no one else then president of US, and prime minister of Israel. Again, no accords needed to be signed.
4. Hamas is starting to get the money that used to go to Fatah. And Ehud Olmer, prime minister of Israel, was the first to push that shovel. Only this time the money will be used more efficiently, as Hamas is less rotten organization then Fatah.
5. Hamas got it's weapons. Only now they don't need kalashnikovs. Now they are importing rockets through the Gaza - Egypt border, another present of Israeli government.
6. They not only inherited the license to kill. Now they are asking for - and getting - license to talk about it in all honesty.
We are in the beginning of the same old spiral now, but on a new level. Similar sequence of events is about to take place, only this time the ride will be faster and more violent.
1. Fatah was given legitimacy
2. given control of today's PA territory
3. given autonomy
4. given billions of dollars (over next 13 years)
5. 30 000 kalashnikov machine guns
6. But most importantly they got license to kill. And kill they did. Since 1993 thousands of Jews have been murdered, and many times that number injured, or lost their relatives.
Hamas is now repeating Fatah's infamous road to fame. On the surface, it would appear there is not much in common between Oslo accords and election of Hamas to PA's parliament. Fatah leaders were brought from abroad; Hamas came from Gaza. Fatah signed an accord. Hamas has won elections. But that's were differences begin to fade:
1. Hamas is getting legitimacy. Putin, then Shirak, then Erdogan, and no doubt soon many more leaders are on track with the goal.
2. Hamas got control of PA. Only this time, they didn't had to sign any accords to get it. This time, they did it while saying *we want Israel destroyed*.
3. Hamas got now more then a promise of autonomy, they inherited the promise of their own country. Made by no one else then president of US, and prime minister of Israel. Again, no accords needed to be signed.
4. Hamas is starting to get the money that used to go to Fatah. And Ehud Olmer, prime minister of Israel, was the first to push that shovel. Only this time the money will be used more efficiently, as Hamas is less rotten organization then Fatah.
5. Hamas got it's weapons. Only now they don't need kalashnikovs. Now they are importing rockets through the Gaza - Egypt border, another present of Israeli government.
6. They not only inherited the license to kill. Now they are asking for - and getting - license to talk about it in all honesty.
We are in the beginning of the same old spiral now, but on a new level. Similar sequence of events is about to take place, only this time the ride will be faster and more violent.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Power Games
The Austrian DerStandard took an interview from Ilka Schröder, an ex EU parlamentarian. In it Ilka gives her explanation to EU willingness to finance PA, and, despite well known facts of misuse of the money, refusal to investigate the money trail. Her explanation comes down to EU's desire to stick it to the Man, by failing US attempts to solve middle-eastern conflicts. This is a fight for spheres of influence. In her words, the policy is supported by very wide range of countries in EU. Which makes me ask. Would they still do the same, if US did not involved itself in Israel's troubles? Whatever Europe did, US, despite good intentions has been doing more harm then good.
And any way you put it, this makes me wonder: didn't momie told them that killing people is evil?
Monday, February 06, 2006
Mr. Olmert's Black List
I decided to make a list of all Olmert's recent strategic mistakes, and/or really illegal actions while serving as a *temporary* replacement for a prime minister:
1. Allowing Marwan Barguti to participate in elections, and to turn his jail cell into elections office.
2. Allowing Hamas to participate in elections
3. Allowing Arabs living in Jerusalem to participate in elections (division of Jerusalem anyone?)
4. Transferring money to PA with not just Fatah, but now Hamas also in power
5. Letting the resolution about disarming Iran from WMD go to UN security council with a quote about creating a WMD free Middle East (how about just disarming Israel, without ever disarming anyone else?)
6. Creating an unnecessary and brutal confrontation between Israeli police and Israeli citizens in Amona
7. Refusing to create an independent investigation comeete to investigate Amona events
Update 1:
8. Failure to prevent wold-wide legitimization of Hamas
Just for fun. Did I forget anything important? Made a mistake? Let me know.
I have a feeling I will update this list in the future.
1. Allowing Marwan Barguti to participate in elections, and to turn his jail cell into elections office.
2. Allowing Hamas to participate in elections
3. Allowing Arabs living in Jerusalem to participate in elections (division of Jerusalem anyone?)
4. Transferring money to PA with not just Fatah, but now Hamas also in power
5. Letting the resolution about disarming Iran from WMD go to UN security council with a quote about creating a WMD free Middle East (how about just disarming Israel, without ever disarming anyone else?)
6. Creating an unnecessary and brutal confrontation between Israeli police and Israeli citizens in Amona
7. Refusing to create an independent investigation comeete to investigate Amona events
Update 1:
8. Failure to prevent wold-wide legitimization of Hamas
Just for fun. Did I forget anything important? Made a mistake? Let me know.
I have a feeling I will update this list in the future.
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Economy of Terror
My fellow blogger Woland, makes an important observation: construction of fusion reactors is stalling because that would collapse oil economies, as fusion reactors do not consume as much oil compared to pressurized or Boiling Water Nuclear Reactors, which in turn account for 2/3 of all oil consumption. Then, he concludes that oil-based economies as well as sponsorship of terror will deteriorate. I agree with the former, but want to argue against the later.
1. Oil Barons will still be selling oil, even if not as much as before, because other sectors of economy will still need oil (cars?) and fusion reactors will not replace existing ones that fast.
2. Even if the money river starts to dry out, oil Barons are still filthy reach. They made investments of many billions of dollars into western economies, and that money is still a very big pile, and delivering profit.
3. No matter how much economy will suffer, leaders of terrorist states will always put financing of terror as a priority. Which means that if there will be any money at all (and in any economy there is always at least some money) it will go south.
4. Eventually Western world will start sending money to those failing economies. Not enough to revive the economy, especially given the corruption, but more then enough to take some more western lives.
5. Financing terror is not *that* expensive. For example, Iran is spending in the order of several 100 million dollars a year on support of various external terrorist organizations. Even for a failing economy this sum is not out of rich.
In short, it will make a dent. It will not make any difference.
1. Oil Barons will still be selling oil, even if not as much as before, because other sectors of economy will still need oil (cars?) and fusion reactors will not replace existing ones that fast.
2. Even if the money river starts to dry out, oil Barons are still filthy reach. They made investments of many billions of dollars into western economies, and that money is still a very big pile, and delivering profit.
3. No matter how much economy will suffer, leaders of terrorist states will always put financing of terror as a priority. Which means that if there will be any money at all (and in any economy there is always at least some money) it will go south.
4. Eventually Western world will start sending money to those failing economies. Not enough to revive the economy, especially given the corruption, but more then enough to take some more western lives.
5. Financing terror is not *that* expensive. For example, Iran is spending in the order of several 100 million dollars a year on support of various external terrorist organizations. Even for a failing economy this sum is not out of rich.
In short, it will make a dent. It will not make any difference.
Yet another twist
Here is a funny quote from Ehud Olmert:
"They did amazing things for the country, and we do not want to make them fell like they don't belong. Part of the responsibility for the hard feelings for them is on their spiritual and political leaders, but I am not releasing the government from trying to negotiate with them".
If I didn't know what country he is talking about, I would have thought he is talking about Palestinians. Of course, Mr. Olmert refers to his own subjects, the settlers. Instead, Olmert is transferring to Hamas 45 million dollars - right after attack in Petah Tikva, and bombing of Kibutz (should I call it a settlement?). The decision is now final. And here is the twist. Just 2 weeks ago, Israeli court made a decision that Hamas must pay 20 million dollars to a family for murdering some of their relatives in Alon More. Now that the 45 million belong to Hamas, isn't Olmert obligated to act on court decision, and transfer 20 million to terror victims? By not doing so, the state of Israel is not only breaking all moral laws there are to break, not only sponsoring terror, but also doing so with the money that belongs to victims of that terror, and doing it morning after yet another terror attack.
Mr. Olmert, if you are reading this (as I am sure you are) remember this: I have family in Petah Tikva; If they got hurt, I am going to sue you.
How is that for a twist?
"They did amazing things for the country, and we do not want to make them fell like they don't belong. Part of the responsibility for the hard feelings for them is on their spiritual and political leaders, but I am not releasing the government from trying to negotiate with them".
If I didn't know what country he is talking about, I would have thought he is talking about Palestinians. Of course, Mr. Olmert refers to his own subjects, the settlers. Instead, Olmert is transferring to Hamas 45 million dollars - right after attack in Petah Tikva, and bombing of Kibutz (should I call it a settlement?). The decision is now final. And here is the twist. Just 2 weeks ago, Israeli court made a decision that Hamas must pay 20 million dollars to a family for murdering some of their relatives in Alon More. Now that the 45 million belong to Hamas, isn't Olmert obligated to act on court decision, and transfer 20 million to terror victims? By not doing so, the state of Israel is not only breaking all moral laws there are to break, not only sponsoring terror, but also doing so with the money that belongs to victims of that terror, and doing it morning after yet another terror attack.
Mr. Olmert, if you are reading this (as I am sure you are) remember this: I have family in Petah Tikva; If they got hurt, I am going to sue you.
How is that for a twist?
Sunday, January 29, 2006
The Beauty and the Beast
Now, that the Hamas won the elections, the situation in Israel has changed once more. Each side has new difficulties and goals. Lets take a quick look at them.
Hamas
1. Budget. PA's annual budget is 1.3 billion $, most of which coming from Europe, some from US and some from taxes Israel is charging for PA. There are 130,000 people sitting on PA's payroll, 40,000 - 60,000 of which are occationally armed and angry.
2. Economy. Hamas promised better future. Now they need to deliver. But how can one build an economy in a state of permanent warfare (the fundamental purpose for Hamas's existence), corruption (which will continue), monopolies (that are too powerful to be dismantled) and economic dependencies?
Israel and Kadima (the ruling party).
1. Conception. The conception was that Hamas cannot win the elections. They did. All intelligence was wrong, all predictions were of track, all decisions were misguided. Who is to blame? What to do to prevent this from happening again?
2. Elections. Still on track for March 28, with Kadima holding a solid lead. How to prevent the public from finding out what role played Kadima-lead government in not preventing Hamas's victory? How to prevent crumbling of the party?
3. Politics. With Hamas at the helm of PA, how can Israeli government justify unilateral disengagement, given that now it can't claim the PA will take care of things? On the other side, how can they negotiate with Hamas?
Europe
1. Hamas. How to give PA more money, now that terrorist organization is in charge? How to justify all those years of mistakes otherwise? Same goes for Israeli government.
Prediction.
Hamas is like the bastard child. You can't love it, you can't hate it. It's outlaw, but now it came back to remind of past sins and ask for money. Worse, it killed the firstborn bastard child, and wants the Estate to itself. What to do? How to save face, now that the bastard child threatens to tell the world who he is, or even light up the Mansion?
Here is what will happen. Europe and Israel will slip Hamas in pretty dresses, and try to sell that to the public. Hamas, in need of piles of euros and dollars, will play along, but only just. They will never stop calling for destruction of Israel, or blow people up. It's in their blood. They will only hold out until Israeli elections are over, and Olmert, the disengagement champion, won the race. European newspapers will start writing about reformed Hamas, and all those people that were surprised and terrified by Hamas's win, will start getting used to the fact that Hamas is the new Fatah. The going argument will be "if Fatah could reform, so can Hamas". Of course, Fatah never did, but it wont matter. In Israel Olmert already agreed to negotiate with Hamas. Of course, he mentioned some conditions. But the basics are there. He is ready. Not that Hamas would of course. Getting their hands dirty like that. But that is not the point. The point is, the message to Israeli voter: it is business as usual. Vote. For. Us. Of course, not that giving money to Hamas will make Europe and Israel terrorist sponsoring states. They been sponsoring terrorism for a while now, in form of Fatah. The only holdouts will be US and Arab countries. Iran (technically speaking, not an Arab country) will start sending Hamas new rockets. And maybe a nuclear bomb in a couple of years. Hamas will start diverting public attention from economics to war. Of course, Fatah been doing it for years, so obviously, the war will need to be bigger this time, not to loose anyone's attention. And it is possible. Hamas will take over PA's security forces (he who pays the money is the boss after all), and merge them with their own forces. This will be done under the flag of "putting all militias under one rule" - something that EU and US actually demanded from Fatah to do. This will provide future proof that Hamas is reforming. Instead, they will simply be putting even more terrorists on PA's payroll. This unified army, that can go up to 100,000, will be more then enough to do something atrocious. For example, conquer Jerusalem. Just one city. And then stop, and open negotiations, holding the Jewish citizens hostage.
Hamas
1. Budget. PA's annual budget is 1.3 billion $, most of which coming from Europe, some from US and some from taxes Israel is charging for PA. There are 130,000 people sitting on PA's payroll, 40,000 - 60,000 of which are occationally armed and angry.
2. Economy. Hamas promised better future. Now they need to deliver. But how can one build an economy in a state of permanent warfare (the fundamental purpose for Hamas's existence), corruption (which will continue), monopolies (that are too powerful to be dismantled) and economic dependencies?
Israel and Kadima (the ruling party).
1. Conception. The conception was that Hamas cannot win the elections. They did. All intelligence was wrong, all predictions were of track, all decisions were misguided. Who is to blame? What to do to prevent this from happening again?
2. Elections. Still on track for March 28, with Kadima holding a solid lead. How to prevent the public from finding out what role played Kadima-lead government in not preventing Hamas's victory? How to prevent crumbling of the party?
3. Politics. With Hamas at the helm of PA, how can Israeli government justify unilateral disengagement, given that now it can't claim the PA will take care of things? On the other side, how can they negotiate with Hamas?
Europe
1. Hamas. How to give PA more money, now that terrorist organization is in charge? How to justify all those years of mistakes otherwise? Same goes for Israeli government.
Prediction.
Hamas is like the bastard child. You can't love it, you can't hate it. It's outlaw, but now it came back to remind of past sins and ask for money. Worse, it killed the firstborn bastard child, and wants the Estate to itself. What to do? How to save face, now that the bastard child threatens to tell the world who he is, or even light up the Mansion?
Here is what will happen. Europe and Israel will slip Hamas in pretty dresses, and try to sell that to the public. Hamas, in need of piles of euros and dollars, will play along, but only just. They will never stop calling for destruction of Israel, or blow people up. It's in their blood. They will only hold out until Israeli elections are over, and Olmert, the disengagement champion, won the race. European newspapers will start writing about reformed Hamas, and all those people that were surprised and terrified by Hamas's win, will start getting used to the fact that Hamas is the new Fatah. The going argument will be "if Fatah could reform, so can Hamas". Of course, Fatah never did, but it wont matter. In Israel Olmert already agreed to negotiate with Hamas. Of course, he mentioned some conditions. But the basics are there. He is ready. Not that Hamas would of course. Getting their hands dirty like that. But that is not the point. The point is, the message to Israeli voter: it is business as usual. Vote. For. Us. Of course, not that giving money to Hamas will make Europe and Israel terrorist sponsoring states. They been sponsoring terrorism for a while now, in form of Fatah. The only holdouts will be US and Arab countries. Iran (technically speaking, not an Arab country) will start sending Hamas new rockets. And maybe a nuclear bomb in a couple of years. Hamas will start diverting public attention from economics to war. Of course, Fatah been doing it for years, so obviously, the war will need to be bigger this time, not to loose anyone's attention. And it is possible. Hamas will take over PA's security forces (he who pays the money is the boss after all), and merge them with their own forces. This will be done under the flag of "putting all militias under one rule" - something that EU and US actually demanded from Fatah to do. This will provide future proof that Hamas is reforming. Instead, they will simply be putting even more terrorists on PA's payroll. This unified army, that can go up to 100,000, will be more then enough to do something atrocious. For example, conquer Jerusalem. Just one city. And then stop, and open negotiations, holding the Jewish citizens hostage.
Friday, January 27, 2006
Holocaust: old and new
It is the International day of the Holocaust today. Today we commemorate the fallen. Everyone, in his own way. Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert, in a grotesque gesture of supreme duplicity, ordered the transfer of 200 million shekel (about 45 million American dollars) to the new rulers of Palestinian Autonomy. The Hamas.
The same Hamas that does not recognizes the very state the money is coming from.
The same Hamas that many times declared that it seeks the destruction of Israel.
The same Hamas that murdered hundreds and mutilated thousands of Israeli citizens.
Subjects of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. His kinsmen. His relatives.
What kind of dramatic irony is that?
I am overwhelmed and speechless.
The same Hamas that does not recognizes the very state the money is coming from.
The same Hamas that many times declared that it seeks the destruction of Israel.
The same Hamas that murdered hundreds and mutilated thousands of Israeli citizens.
Subjects of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. His kinsmen. His relatives.
What kind of dramatic irony is that?
I am overwhelmed and speechless.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
The soup that eats like a meal
It is often hard, or even impossible to label things black or white. In terms of math, some are 0, some are 1, but most are well in between. The life, as people say, is not all black and white, there are shades of gray. Indeed, only blind can disagree with that, and I doubt many of them actually would. Yet, when it comes to interpreting what those grays mean in our pathetic human brain, people inevitably try to relate the grays to one of the only two extremes. For practical purposes it is sometimes an inevitable necessity. For many things in this world, like life and death, are white and black, and the two worlds (the gray and the black and white) need to be reconciled.
Here is where the problems start. The approaches to reconciliation are at least two:
1. The soup that eats like a meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because in this case for all intents and purposes, it works just like black (or white)."
2. The soup IS the meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because it's color is a matter of perspective".
While the difference might at first seem subtle, it is in fact as big as differences get. #1 simply admits that sometimes in choice (much like in a war) precision needs to be sacrificed for accuracy. #2 suggests that any choice can be as precise or as accurate as one wants it to be. This assumption not only allows to shift around the point of origin of this "coordinate system", but turn the entire color scale into a complete mix of colors, allowing completely different colors to neighbor each other (while remaining seemingly coherent in one's head). This, I think, is the cornerstone argument of moral relativists. And the source of their confusion. They don't see the choice #1, and assume that the only way to disagree with them is to imagine that the world is black and white. But sometimes all the soup needs is a little bit of steering.
Here is where the problems start. The approaches to reconciliation are at least two:
1. The soup that eats like a meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because in this case for all intents and purposes, it works just like black (or white)."
2. The soup IS the meal philosophy: "trust the gray to be black (or white) because it's color is a matter of perspective".
While the difference might at first seem subtle, it is in fact as big as differences get. #1 simply admits that sometimes in choice (much like in a war) precision needs to be sacrificed for accuracy. #2 suggests that any choice can be as precise or as accurate as one wants it to be. This assumption not only allows to shift around the point of origin of this "coordinate system", but turn the entire color scale into a complete mix of colors, allowing completely different colors to neighbor each other (while remaining seemingly coherent in one's head). This, I think, is the cornerstone argument of moral relativists. And the source of their confusion. They don't see the choice #1, and assume that the only way to disagree with them is to imagine that the world is black and white. But sometimes all the soup needs is a little bit of steering.
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