I don't like multiplying blogs, but this time my hand was forced, my foot was dragged, and my head was kicked :)
I am registering a new blog on LJ. For now mainly to have an avatar. If the posting thing will progress, it will be in russian, it will be more (but not too) personal, and it will be green.
It's hard to be green.
Tuesday, August 09, 2005
Monday, August 01, 2005
My little prophecy: the disengagement
Those are extrapolations from what I read in the press. I can be completely wrong.
During the disengagement, at start, things will go according to plan, and huge manpower will be in place to do it. Hamas will bomb until the moment actual transfer begins, and then stop. IDF will let it.
The removal of protesters will quickly take an unexpected turn and will become a chaos - not on palestinian side, on ours. News about events inside will be sparse and contradictory, but they will be on all channels. Mainstream media will repeat everything Sharon will say is happening, which will be far from truth. IDF will prevent cellphones from calling, communication devices from working, and will not let journalists in.
The entire country will stand on a brink of chaos as most police will be out to deal with protesters or in Gaza. With no police around in the *entire country* criminals will go wild. Protesters, on which police will concentrate, will freeze traffic and disrupt whatever they plan to disrupt. Prisons will get filled with jews of all ages down to 13 year olds, and the rest of the arrested will be put in ... yes, there is only one name for it: concentration camps. They will be concentrated in camps. Children 2 - 13 will be taken away from imprisoned parents and put in foster homes or with relatives. Later court will attempt to void rights of those parents to their children, and put them for reeducation in liberal Kibutz.
It is too hard to tell if disengagement will actually happen. All bets are open, and the crazyest things might happen. Ironically, arabs themselves will not expririence much chaos. If autonomy police will try to do anything, they get couple of bullets and quickly chicken out. Hamas will be the most organized force and will make sure everything plays out it's way on the arab side.
If the transfer will be accomplished, IDF will try to stay in the houses for time being. But, as soon as civilians are out, or before, Hamas will resume bombardment. If IDF will keep itself together they will do a large scale operation inside Gaza to stop it. Otherwise they will leave Gush Katif in huge rush, on the heals of settlers themselves. South Lebanon style.
This is my prediction, which might be untrue. I very much hope so.
During the disengagement, at start, things will go according to plan, and huge manpower will be in place to do it. Hamas will bomb until the moment actual transfer begins, and then stop. IDF will let it.
The removal of protesters will quickly take an unexpected turn and will become a chaos - not on palestinian side, on ours. News about events inside will be sparse and contradictory, but they will be on all channels. Mainstream media will repeat everything Sharon will say is happening, which will be far from truth. IDF will prevent cellphones from calling, communication devices from working, and will not let journalists in.
The entire country will stand on a brink of chaos as most police will be out to deal with protesters or in Gaza. With no police around in the *entire country* criminals will go wild. Protesters, on which police will concentrate, will freeze traffic and disrupt whatever they plan to disrupt. Prisons will get filled with jews of all ages down to 13 year olds, and the rest of the arrested will be put in ... yes, there is only one name for it: concentration camps. They will be concentrated in camps. Children 2 - 13 will be taken away from imprisoned parents and put in foster homes or with relatives. Later court will attempt to void rights of those parents to their children, and put them for reeducation in liberal Kibutz.
It is too hard to tell if disengagement will actually happen. All bets are open, and the crazyest things might happen. Ironically, arabs themselves will not expririence much chaos. If autonomy police will try to do anything, they get couple of bullets and quickly chicken out. Hamas will be the most organized force and will make sure everything plays out it's way on the arab side.
If the transfer will be accomplished, IDF will try to stay in the houses for time being. But, as soon as civilians are out, or before, Hamas will resume bombardment. If IDF will keep itself together they will do a large scale operation inside Gaza to stop it. Otherwise they will leave Gush Katif in huge rush, on the heals of settlers themselves. South Lebanon style.
This is my prediction, which might be untrue. I very much hope so.
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