The True victory...

...of Hezbollah in the recent war is that the number of people wanting to leave Israel for good has grown tremendously. Number of inquires with Canadian embassy alone has grown 5-fold. It's not just the new immigrants, but people that made aliya 10 - 15 years ago. If anything can dismantle the country, this is it. On personal level I am very confused about the situation. After all, I also made aliya 16 years ago, and now I live in Miami. What right do I have to blame them? And so I do not. There are many reasons to leave, enough to circle the globe 3 times. And only one reason to stay. When Israel is gone, we shall never go home again. I hope I will be coming back.

This is how it's done

If you read this blog you know I am not against Bush. But sometimes this fella just drops me on the floor. This time it is a 6-year old phrase:

I am mindful of the difference between the executive branch and the legislative branch. I assured all four of these leaders that I know the difference, and that difference is they pass the laws and I execute them.

--George w. Bush

Washington, DC
12/20/2000

Not that mistake again!

In his new speech Bibi said that "unilateral disengagement" is "bad" and "bilateral" is "good". Now, unilateral is sure not a solution, we got Gaza and Lebanon after that, but bilateral is even worse. It's back to the times of Oslo and Arafat, only without Arafat (thank God) and not in Oslo. We all know how that ended too.

So, what's the solution? Here are some words of wisdom from the Ministry of Offence. Step back from semantics and realize: mortal enemies are still mortal, on our side of the border and on theirs. Mortal enemies, wherever they are, means mortal danger. And mortal danger is always first on the priority lists. There is but one choice then. Crash the enemy first, disengage later.

Pallywood: all you never wanted to know

In this hard to believe footage about PA "journalism" you will witness staged battles, healthy people playing dead and wounded, and even fake baby delivery.

Next time it will be the air force

Let me make another grim prophecy here... When I first heard about Israeli tank being hit in Lebanon I tried to find out if it was Magah, or Merkava. See, if it was Magah everything is self explanatory: the tank is old and not very protected. However, Merkava is a very well protected vehicle, one of the best in the world. To my surprise it turned out to be Merkava. Since than many tanks have been hit in Lebanon, and we already know the reason: Hezbollah is using very advanced Russian anti-tank rocket launchers Vampire. Where do all those Vampires come from? They are produced by a Russian firm "Bazalt" and are delivered via Syria. Moreover, all the famous "Iranian" rockets fired at Israeli cities are also either produced or engineered in Russia: Fajr-3 is Russian Uragan, Fajr-5 is Russian Smerch, Zeizal-2 is Russian Luna-M.

And now to the prediction. Apparently, Russian army is replacing it's older but still very potent anti-aircraft rocket systems C-300. One of those took down a passenger plain with a bunch of Israelies over the Black Sea some years ago (that one was Ukrainian C-300). The new systems coming in are C-400, but it is the C-300 that worry me. Russian army includes 35 regiments (!) of those little toys on big tracks, and they are all going to be replaced in a process that starts now. Where will the C-300s go? I won't be surprised if in the next war IAF will start suffering losses from ground fire, just like today Merkava do.

Introducing: Zionist Death Snipers

IDF has called upon snipers that made aliya from Russia and fought the Chechen and Afghan wars. For those who do no know, war in Chechnia, like any war in that region by far outstrips in it's brutality daily encounters with Palestinian terrorists by IDF soldiers. Same true about war in Afghanistan. To say in addition that those people are snipers immediately makes them the military elite in any army in the world.

If IDF lets them fight, the results will be substantial. It is a shame however they are only being called upon now, many weeks after the fighting started. Their presence in the battlefield could have saved many lives. Even worse is the fact that they are no longer used in confrontations with Palestinian terrorists, even though there was a pilot period during which they were deployed. Such disregard for highly motivated, highly professional force in a time of dire need shows poor judgment and lack of leadership skills on part of the army top officers. Inexcusable for an officer, especially in a time of war.

It would be wise to make a better use of those people in the future. I would suggest to use them as intructors in sniper courses. But I doubt anybody is listening.

Why Lebanese war can be neither won nor lost

Hezbolah was organized in 1982 from a coalition of Lebanese Shia clericals, each with his own sphere of influence. Sheih Muhamad Husein Fadula, the principal founder, from the very beginning made a tight relationship with Iran, and, to a lesser degree with Syria the foundation of Hezbolah's prosperity and continuous support. The support hurried up to arrive: financial, military and political – for the acceptable price of Hezbolah leadership answering to the Iranian ayatollahs. It is important to understand that Hezbolah was not created “because of” but rather “for the purpose of”. The situation that permitted creation of Hezbolah was the handiwork of Yasser Arafat that started in Lebanon civil war and gave Syria a reason to "liberate" Lebanon, while in effect occupying it. The reason behind creation of Hezbolah became it's hidden purpose of existence: to establish in Lebanon an Islamic republic answering to Iran. The official goal, designed to garner wide public support and divert attention from it's true intentions (which wouldn't make Lebanese non-Muslims particularly happy) was declared as "resistance to Israeli occupation". “Occupation” can of course mean different things, depending on what is assumed to be occupied. After Israel left south Lebanon in 2000 Hezbolah started to prepare for future confrontation, while keeping the border on low burner with occasional rockets into civilian population. To justify this new status quo an originally Syrian region called the "Shebaa farms" ("mount Dov" on Israeli maps) was declared the yet to be liberated Lebanese territory. As of today, driving Israel out of Lebanon is but the last step on the road to the true goal of the organization: extending the reach of the Iranian regime to the shores of the Mediterranean sea. Meanwhile confrontation with Israel serves Iran well on it's way to the bigger prize. A prize which can in turn serve Iran as a perfect starting point to deliver on Ahmadi-Nejad's promise: the end of what he likes to call "Zionist regime" – Israel.

It is obvious that in the current war in Lebanon Hezbolah will not be destroyed. As to victory, both Israel and Hezbolah are likely to claim it in the end, and both are likely to be wrong. Hezbolah already lost much in men, weapons, real estate e.t.c.. They have also already used up most of their “surprises” prepared for many years, most important of which is the illusion of many in Israel that Hezbolah no longer poses a serious threat. The price of failure of Israeli intelligence with respect to secret bunkers in south Lebanon, secret weapon smuggling routs, Chinese and Russian anti-ship and anti-tank missiles is high but is already paid up. Moreover, this war caused Israeli population and Knesset unite to an unprecedented degree – a very positive development in light of recent rim in the society. On it's part, Israel is not going to gain anything worth the loses. International force, if it enters south Lebanon, is likely to be as useless as the UNIFIL soldiers are today. Hezbolah will stay around in civilian clothes. The threat of missiles will remain as potent as ever: longer range rockets can easily hit Israeli cities even from beyond Litany river, and they regularly will. The kidnapped soldiers will not be returned, forcing Israel to engage in secret negotiations for their return – and for a big price. Most importantly, Hezbolah, the underdog, will have a claim at not being broken by the strongest army in the middle east. The perception of IDF and IAF strength, being even more important then their actual strength in keeping Israel's enemies from charging the borders today, will be damaged. That perception is one hell of a thing to build up, and very easy to loose. Finally, the Lebanon is going to enjoy wide international financial support in rebuilding. Israel will stand alone in rebuilding it's wounded northern cities.

The unlimited resources at Hezbolah's disposal, men and money (including Iran's oil money and Hezbolah's money making machine in South Africa, South America, Lebanon, e.t.c) will not be easily depleted. We must conclude then that destruction of Hezbolah, executed as a separate task, removed from the realities of the Bigger Picture is not only impossible, but more importantly absolutely irrelevant. Such forces such as Syrian Bashar Assad, Iranian Ayatollahs, Al-Kaeda, Hizbalah, and many many others can not be defeated unless we recognize them as part of the same machine. Ignorance of this fact is the main cause of USA's inability to stabilize Afghanistan or Iraq, Israel's failure with Hezbolah in Lebanon, and Fatah and Hamas in Israel itself, or Egypt's failure with Al-Kaeda in Sinai peninsula, and many others. Achieving success in just one of those places is similar to fencing out portion of an ocean. Until the world leaders start thinking big instead of only in terms of their own keep, something that requires a great deal of honesty and courage, the wars will continue, drawing us into an ever bleaker future. There can be no half-hearted victory.