Friday, March 31, 2006

Price of 1 vote

I think people learned from the 2000 US presidential elections and the Florida incident that every vote counts. Recent elections in Israel provided one more prove to that effect.

Before the voting of soldiers was taken into account Likud had 11 seats and Israel Our Home 12 seats. As a consequence It because 4th largest party in Knesset, and potentially the largest party in opposition. Which is actually a big deal, because the opposition leader has special privileges, and special status according to law, and is the one expected to run for prime minister in the next elections.

Parties by size before soldiers voted:

Israel Our Home

It was not meant to be. After soldier's votes have been accounted for, it turned out that Israel Our Home has exactly 220 votes less then Likud. As a consequence 1 of their seats went to Likud, getting their total down to 11, and getting Likud up to 12. Now Likud is the 3 largest party, as the ex-3rd largest party Shas also lost one seat and came down to 12 from 13.

Parties by size after soldiers voted:

Shas, Likud
Israel Our Home

That's not all however. The person who got so lucky and got the 12th seat from Likud is Israel Katz. Israel Katz belongs to group of internal opposition to Netaniahu, also featuring Silvan Shalom, Limor Livnat and Dani Nave. In Israel there is a law that a party has officially split if at least 1/3 of it's members leave it to create a new parliamentary block. Without Katz the opposition was 3/11 which is less then 1/3. With him it is 4/12 which is exactly 1/3. Which means that those 220 votes gave Shalom & co. the power to threaten Netaniahu with splitting up the party (again). Or actually do it.


FollowJesus said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
FollowJesus said...

The consequence of one person's sin.

Isn't it amazing how one person can weaken a whole nation. In Yehoshua Chapter 7, the sin of one man (Achan) determined the outcome of the battle with the men of Ai.

One person truly can make a difference.

Irina Tsukerman said...

There's nothing left to split.

Yury Puzis said...

followjesus: indeed

irina: that's in hard numbers. in actuallity Likud still has a chance for a comeback next elections - now that it is the (almost) biggest right wing party again. but if it is split it is finished.