Price of 1 vote: Part 2

In the previous post I talked about the effect of the soldier's vote on the right-wing parties in Israel. And what about the left? Before the vote left parties were numbering 59 seats, 2 short of critical 61, a blocking number in a 120 seats Knesset. After the votes were counted Kadima and Meretz gained one seat each, turning the power into the hands of the left parties. At the same time one of Arab parties lost 1 seat, getting the Arab total down to 9. However, it turns out that one of the Arab parties claims there was an error in count, and a small number of it's votes went to Herut. The issue is still under consideration, but if it turns out to be true, Arabs will take one seat from... Avoda. This will bring the total left-wing seats to 60, costing left-wing parties the short-lived dominance.

Price of 1 vote

I think people learned from the 2000 US presidential elections and the Florida incident that every vote counts. Recent elections in Israel provided one more prove to that effect.

Before the voting of soldiers was taken into account Likud had 11 seats and Israel Our Home 12 seats. As a consequence It because 4th largest party in Knesset, and potentially the largest party in opposition. Which is actually a big deal, because the opposition leader has special privileges, and special status according to law, and is the one expected to run for prime minister in the next elections.

Parties by size before soldiers voted:

Kadima
Avoda
Shas
Israel Our Home
Likud

It was not meant to be. After soldier's votes have been accounted for, it turned out that Israel Our Home has exactly 220 votes less then Likud. As a consequence 1 of their seats went to Likud, getting their total down to 11, and getting Likud up to 12. Now Likud is the 3 largest party, as the ex-3rd largest party Shas also lost one seat and came down to 12 from 13.

Parties by size after soldiers voted:

Kadima
Avoda
Shas, Likud
Israel Our Home

That's not all however. The person who got so lucky and got the 12th seat from Likud is Israel Katz. Israel Katz belongs to group of internal opposition to Netaniahu, also featuring Silvan Shalom, Limor Livnat and Dani Nave. In Israel there is a law that a party has officially split if at least 1/3 of it's members leave it to create a new parliamentary block. Without Katz the opposition was 3/11 which is less then 1/3. With him it is 4/12 which is exactly 1/3. Which means that those 220 votes gave Shalom & co. the power to threaten Netaniahu with splitting up the party (again). Or actually do it.

Back to the future

And the second elections in Israel are over, we get a terrorist attack. Hamas is back, now that it's favorite candidate has won the Israeli elections, and it's safe to kill again. In other news, new rocket lunchers are developed in Gaza. They will reach as far as Ashdod.

Can we still ship a ship?

Microsoft can't ship a new operating system since 2001. NASA can't lunch a ship since 2003 (and can't land one for even longer). That's 3 years for anyone who is counting. What's next? US government unable to reorganize homeland security since 2001? Oh wait...

Quote of the day 2

Tom Maurstad on "V for Vendetta": "it was better the first time around, when it was called The Matrix".

Quote of the day

Kadima's official, on his party's failure to convince the russian-speaking voters to support Kadima: "A little too late we understood that the approach for Russian speakers must be rational"

Other World

Yesterday I went to Indian Festival in Fort Lauderdale, and had a chance to converse with an interesting Indian. He was dressed in traditional Indian outfit, with different symbols from the Hindu religion. For anyone not familiar with Hinduism seeing this dress could come as a shock. There were 3 most prominent symbols drawn on the surface of his outfit: the "OM" symbol, a six-edged star (Star of David in Judaism) and the Swastika. Although I knew about the origin of those symbols, it still felt very strange to see swastika neighboring star of David on Hindu dress. A reminder of how fast people twist the world around us into it's complete opposite, and how quickly we (especially the Europeans / Americans) forget our history.
Another thing that surprised me, if not in content (because I already knew about this) then in delivery was his mention of Christ. Leaving no room for doubt, as if we were speaking of a widely known and non-disputed fact he informed me that Christ spent a dozen years of his life in India (starting from age 13, point after which Bible is skipping right to his 30s), and that he died in India, returning there after crucifixion.
There was also another thing he mentioned, one that really took me by surprise. Religion, he said, was European invention. Before Europeans came to India and explained to everyone that they are religious, and are practicing this or that religion, the concept itself did not exist in that society. There was no religion, and one couldn't be religious, atheist, or agnostic. There was simply a way of life. One or another. That's it. And now that I think of it, the concept does seems very artificial. Nations that today preach religious tolerance are partly responsible for creating the need for it in the first place. How ironic is that.
Just a small chat with someone raised in a different culture, and the world stands on it's head, and truth, whatever it is, is banging on the door.

Magician I'm not telling your actual score. Hmph!

The Magician is free and full of energety. Magicians like to entertain. They like to change things. They seem driven by some invisible force. Things that never change quickly become boring to them, as they live fast-paced lives. They are very creative and able; many successful people are Magicians. Magicians, as the name implies, are often very talented and capable of performing feats that seem impossible. Although they are very artistic, they aren't usually introspective or philosophical. Magicians prefer to live in the minute. Although they really like people and even devote a portion of themselves to the world, they need their space. You can't corner a magician. He'll disappear in a puff of smoke. The Magician's complement is the kind and generous King.

My test tracked 2 variables How you compared to other people your age and gender: You scored higher than 60% on Confidence You scored higher than 81% on Creativity

Link: The Medieval Archetype Test written by isayso on OkCupid Free Online Dating, home of the 32-Type Dating Test

State of Affairs

Lets talk about today's geopolitical landscape, and trends. There are several important things happening today, that will have far-reaching consequences in the future, and it is important to understand them. This post is not so much my own conclusions, as it is a digest of several analytical articles.

Retreat on Hamas Front
First, there is the Hamas victory in Palestinian general elections. The trends that will set the course of events for the next few years are evident already. Hamas was able to bring 88 parliamentarians under their flag (more then two thirds), and immediately took away from Abbas ability to block parliament's decisions. The rule in PA is now parliamentary (belongs to Hamas), and not presidential (belongs to Fatah). All western powers dealing with Hamas - Israel, US, EU, Russia showed submission, are on retreat, and talk in split tongue. Israel gave Hamas ~45 million dollars. US government cannot give Hamas money, but cheered EU's decision to do just that. Finally, Russia invited Hamas to Kremlin. Despite popular belief, this is not going to hurt Russia. On the contrary, they are setting the stage for EU and US future talks with Hamas, quite possibly with EU and US blessing. This will result in further submissions and pressure on Israel to cave in to more demands. Hamas will try to remain "a good international citizen" while this retreat continues, getting ready to start a war the second it stops. The biggest threat to Hamas is, surprisingly, coming from Al Qaida which recently started pressuring Hamas to turn Gaza, and then West Bunk into Taliban-style state. Given Hamas's Muslim roots, it will be very hard for them to balance between being a good international citizen, and not upsetting their own supporters or provoking Al Qaida retaliation against them.

Retreat on Iraq Front
Whether or not going into Iraq was a good idea, Bush's handling of subsequent war in Iraq, that developed between Suni militia, Iranian agents and Zarkawis Al Qaida on one side, and US, British, and Iraqi regular army on another, is a failure. US army, despite winning nearly all battles it fought, is loosing the war. Despite having unlimited financial and (Iraqi) human resources, is failing to create a fight-worthy regular army of Iraq. High rate of desertions, Al Qaida infiltration, poor training are making Iraqi army a useless body of firearms bearers. The second coalition forces retreat from Iraq this army will face impossible odds and either crumble or will be completely taken over by Al Qaida. And retreat is exactly what US and British forces are starting to do. By 2007/8 Iraq will be free of western armies, and split, if not in name then in practice, into 3 entities: Kurds under US influence in north, Sunis + Al Qaida on West, Shiits under Iranian influence in South. 2 out of 3 parts of Iraq (excluding the Kurds) will become terrorist states. Oil production will soar, as different forces will start cashing in on their new-found fortune. US's credibility among the common men in the middle east, shaken after the early 90's retreat, will be shattered. Next time US will need local cooperation in the region they will face a huge problem of mistrust.

Israeli Elections
Kadima led by Olmert will win the elections. The threat to Olmert's rule will come from within. Kadima is made up of people that united around a specific man and a specific idea. The man, Ariel Sharon, is now on his death bed, and idea, unilateral disengagement, is becoming more and more controversial, now that the Hamas has won the elections in PA. Already there are two camps forming in Kadima around this issue. Which means simple thing really - the government will be heavily influenced by the second biggest party in coalition. I expect the results of nearing general elections to be strongly underwhelming for Kadima, making it even more dependent on other coalition members. In all probability Olmert will choose to go with Avoda and not Likud, since caving in to social demands of Amir Peretz will be less intrusive then caving in to political demands of Netaniahu. Given Mr. Peretz's track record, it is as good as tossing the economy out of the window, in slow motion. The government will not live long (a year or two) but long enough to cause some major strategic and economical damage. Olmert's indecisiveness and lack of clear strategy will become more and more apparent, and Kadima will disappear from political map within several years, torn apart by both inside and outside forces.


And what are your thoughts of the situation?

You Are Italian Food

Comforting yet overwhelming. People love you, but sometimes you're just too much.

What Kind of Food Are You?

Manifesto against Islamism

Taken from Irina Tsukerman

MANIFESTO: Together facing the new totalitarianism

After having overcome fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism, the world now faces a new totalitarian global threat: Islamism.

We, writers, journalists, intellectuals, call for resistance to religious totalitarianism and for the promotion of freedom, equal opportunity and secular values for all.

The recent events, which occurred after the publication of drawings of Muhammed in European newspapers, have revealed the necessity of the struggle for these universal values. This struggle will not be won by arms, but in the ideological field. It is not a clash of civilisations nor an antagonism of West and East that we are witnessing, but a global struggle that confronts democrats and theocrats.

Like all totalitarianisms, Islamism is nurtured by fears and frustrations. The hate preachers bet on these feelings in order to form battalions destined to impose a liberticidal and unegalitarian world. But we clearly and firmly state: nothing, not even despair, justifies the choice of obscurantism, totalitarianism and hatred. Islamism is a reactionary ideology which kills equality, freedom and secularism wherever it is present. Its success can only lead to a world of domination: man's domination of woman, the Islamists' domination of all the others. To counter this, we must assure universal rights to oppressed or discriminated people.

We reject cultural relativism, which consists in accepting that men and women of Muslim culture should be deprived of the right to equality, freedom and secular values in the name of respect for cultures and traditions. We refuse to renounce our critical spirit out of fear of being accused of "Islamophobia", an unfortunate concept which confuses criticism of Islam as a religion with stigmatisation of its believers.

We plead for the universality of freedom of expression, so that a critical spirit may be exercised on all continents, against all abuses and all dogmas.

We appeal to democrats and free spirits of all countries that our century should be one of Enlightenment, not of obscurantism.

12 signatures

Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Chahla Chafiq
Caroline Fourest
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Irshad Manji
Mehdi Mozaffari
Maryam Namazie
Taslima Nasreen
Salman Rushdie
Antoine Sfeir
Philippe Val
Ibn Warraq


Copy this manifesto, spread the word!

Synagogeu destroyed in Tajikistan

As it says in the headline, on Feb. 26, 2006 a synagogeu was destroyed in Tajikistan. It wasn't simply central, it was the only synagogue in the country. It wasn't an accident or even a terrorist attack. It was destroyed by order of the government. The newspapers are quiet. The world is busy with the Iraqi mosque.

Keep reading here.

Dirty mice

Meet Prof. Hasan Bolkhari, a cultural advisor to the Iranian Education Ministry:

"If you study European history, you will see who was the main power to hoard money and wealth, in the 19th century. In most cases, it is the Jews. Perhaps that was one of the reasons which caused Hitler to begin the anti-Semitic trend, and then the extensive propaganda about the crematoria began... Some of this is true. We do not deny all of it.

Watch Schindler's List. Every Jew was forced to wear a yellow star on his clothing. The Jews were degraded and termed "dirty mice." Tom and Jerry was made in order to change the Europeans' perception of mice. One of terms used was "dirty mice." I'd like to tell you that... It should be noted that mice are very cunning...and dirty.

No ethnic group or people operates in such a clandestine manner as the Jews."

Hasan Bolkhari by the way, holds a Ph.D in Islamic philosophy. However, if you just thought there is probably no big difference between the nazis and the professors of Islamic philosophy, you are gravely mistaken. Nazis never had so much electricity:

Fisking Hamas

Today Ministry of Offence looks at the charter of the organization now in control of Palestinian Autonomy, deemed to turn State, as decided by president of United States and prime-minister of Israel. The Hamas Charter. The Introduction has the most specific information as to the purpose of the document:

"This is the Charter of the Islamic Resistance (Hamas) which will reveal its face, unveil its identity, state its position, clarify its purpose, discuss its hopes, call for support to its cause and reinforcement, and for joining its ranks. For our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave..."

Today we will be doing some revealing of our own:

"And if the People of the Scripture had believed, it had been better for them. Some of them are believers; but most of them are evil-doers."

First, the People of the Scripture (notice the capitalization, the Tora evidently commands respect) are Jews of course, not nerds. But maybe nerds need to be careful too. Who knows what the authors were thinking. The interesting thing here is however the "some but not all" sentiment. Does it means that in the eyes of the Allah one can be Jewish and not evil?

"They have incurred anger from their Lord, and wretchedness is laid upon them."

Maybe not. Ok, so sue us. But what's up with the "their" Lord? I thought Muslims are monotheistic? Or maybe they only worship one lord, but don't dispute their plurality? Isn't that polytheism?

"Israel will rise and will remain erect until Islam eliminates it as it had eliminated its predecessors."

There is only one problem. Eleminating predcessors? Never really happened. In fact, arabs pretty much lost every single war they fought. Ever. Does it has anything to do with the fact that...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement draws its guidelines from Islam; derives from it its thinking, interpretations and views about existence, life and humanity; refers back to it for its conduct; and is inspired by it in whatever step it takes."

Maybe building extrimist religion based on the "Art Of War" would be more productive? If they weren't so numerouse, it could mean trouble...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement is one of the wings of the Muslim Brothers in Palestine."

Apperently, Hamas is not a regional organization, but a branch of international network!

"I have created Man and Devil for the purpose of their worship"

What about the women? Was it Jewish god who created them? Or, maybe they mean to say that Woman is the Devil? This is getting interesting...

"The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine has been an Islamic Waqf throughout the generations and until the Day of Resurrection, no one can renounce it or part of it, or abandon it or part of it. .... This is the status [of the land] in Islamic Sharia, and it is similar to all lands conquered by Islam by force, and made thereby Waqf lands upon their conquest, for all generations of Muslims until the Day of Resurrection."

And so, any land ever touched by Muslim army belongs to Islam forever. What's that you said about peace... ?

"[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. For renouncing any part of Palestine means renouncing part of the religion"

Gotcha!

Cartoon World War: Act 3.

Synopsis: In an unprovoked and unannounced act of cartoon violence Danish government attacks Muslim cleric Muhammad. Following self-restraint period of half a year, Muslim world strikes back with a case of severe cartoon Holocaust denial syndrome. Today Israel is taking the fight back were it belongs.

Once again Ministry of Offence is bringing you exclusive news from the battlefront. Following recently announced Iranian contest for best Holocaust-defying cartoon, Israeli artists decided to take matters into their own hands, and launch a creative counter strike.
In a gravity-defying act of courageous search for the inner peace, proactive self deprecation,, and selfless self promotion, Israeli painter Amitai Sendy jump-started an "anti-Semitic cartoon contest", designed to show the world who hates Jews the most. According to Amitai:

"We thought it would be a much braver thing to do to publish cartoons about ourselves, rather than our adversaries"

In a related act of self deprecation, Danish cartoonists have recently pronounced their support for muslim retatliation against Danish cartoonists, and agreed to publish the best Holocaust-denying cartoons in their newspaper.

President of Iran, Danish cartoonists, were unavailable for comment at the time of publishing of this article. So, to help our readers understand most recent developments our War Experts drafted a map of current offensives:

The seating torture

Here, at the Ministry of Offence, we are forever committed to holding strong bounds with fellow colleagues. Recently, the Russian minister of defense, Mr. Sergey Ivanov, has been taking a beating on the issue of an obscure Russian soldier Andrei Sichov. We decided to go on an offensive of our own.

The story of private Sichov is an ordinary one, one of many. Got recruited. Did not show promise as a soldier. Consequently was subjected to severe and repeated disciplining by more experienced soldiers. Instead of thanking his comrades, Sichov stubbornly refused to acknowledge his mistakes and developed gidronefroz of left kidney and gangrene in lower part of body. As a consequece both legs and reproductive organs had to be amputated. The private is currently fighting for his alleged life in one of the best hospitals of Russia, thus continuing to fuel a campaign of disinformation and astroturfing against the minister of defense Ivanov. It is time now, to finaly give Ivanov a fighting chance to defend his good name. Ivanov:

"In case of Andrei Sichov, if we can trust preliminary results of an investigation, the reason for the infliction of severe harm to his health became prolonged, compulsory seating"

Still here

Anti-semitism I mean. Not in some distant land, but in civilized Chicago. Europe is still much worse, but things don't look good right now. And we all know what this keeps leading to over the past two thousand years...

Fruits of "Labor"

Today Israel's party Kadima, in a noble impulse, planted 100 pine trees on government land.

Some might still remember that they promised to plant one tree for each new member of party. Maybe the party is not as big as claim the polls? Or Olmert's team simply meant to plant one tree for each new member of Kadima in next Knesset? Either way, Haim Ramon promised that one thing is for sure: "Kadima is an imperishable movement, it is like a tree that will bear fruits f or many years". And now we know what those fruits are.

The Golem of Jerusalem

"They are Nazgul. Neither living nor dead"

Aragorn, "Lord of the Rings"

A comatose prime minister is maintaining a significant lead in the polls on national elections. Does anything seems wrong with this picture? As newspapers describe it, the life of Israel's prime minister is once again out of danger. After undergoing a life-saving operation while remaining in a comatose state, Ariel Sharon's condition continues to be stable and comatose. I wish I could wish him well, but right now, every time I write his name I have to stay my hand not to add "zihrono le braha" as they do in Hebrew when mentioning the dead. It is pretty obvious what's happening. Sharon's body is kept animated by machines until the 28 of march, the day of elections, despite the fact that there is no life left in that body. A Golem of national significance. This is wrong, and immoral. Let the man go. I am not talking about euthanasia. There is nothing left for that. Just let him go, and stop this circus of death.

Oslo Extreme Edition

It seems like many people underestimate the geopolitical significance of Hamas wining the elections in PA. Lets recollect the results of Oslo accords. They are easy to enumerate:

1. Fatah was given legitimacy
2. given control of today's PA territory
3. given autonomy
4. given billions of dollars (over next 13 years)
5. 30 000 kalashnikov machine guns
6. But most importantly they got license to kill. And kill they did. Since 1993 thousands of Jews have been murdered, and many times that number injured, or lost their relatives.

Hamas is now repeating Fatah's infamous road to fame. On the surface, it would appear there is not much in common between Oslo accords and election of Hamas to PA's parliament. Fatah leaders were brought from abroad; Hamas came from Gaza. Fatah signed an accord. Hamas has won elections. But that's were differences begin to fade:

1. Hamas is getting legitimacy. Putin, then Shirak, then Erdogan, and no doubt soon many more leaders are on track with the goal.

2. Hamas got control of PA. Only this time, they didn't had to sign any accords to get it. This time, they did it while saying *we want Israel destroyed*.

3. Hamas got now more then a promise of autonomy, they inherited the promise of their own country. Made by no one else then president of US, and prime minister of Israel. Again, no accords needed to be signed.

4. Hamas is starting to get the money that used to go to Fatah. And Ehud Olmer, prime minister of Israel, was the first to push that shovel. Only this time the money will be used more efficiently, as Hamas is less rotten organization then Fatah.

5. Hamas got it's weapons. Only now they don't need kalashnikovs. Now they are importing rockets through the Gaza - Egypt border, another present of Israeli government.

6. They not only inherited the license to kill. Now they are asking for - and getting - license to talk about it in all honesty.

We are in the beginning of the same old spiral now, but on a new level. Similar sequence of events is about to take place, only this time the ride will be faster and more violent.